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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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