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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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