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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 07 August 20
PEABODY'S $1.42 BILLION WRITE-DOWN CONCEDES COAL MINES HAVE LITTLE VALUE AND DIM FUTURE - IEEFA
Trouble at biggest mine in Powder River Basin speaks volumes about state of industry
Peabody Energy, the world’s largest priva ...
Thursday, 06 August 20
SUPRAMAX MARKET CONTINUED SIDEWAYS TREND, AND LITTLE INSPIRING NEWS APPEAR - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is presently a small correction in rates, but overall levels are up from previous week mainly due to increased demand in the Eas ...
Thursday, 06 August 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITING BIDS FOR MIN 3,600-MAX 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) inviting bids for 80,000 Tons (MT) Min 3,600~Max 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal f ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
NO NEW MINING LICENSES - A REMINDER TO GOVERNORS IN INDONESIA - SSEK
Indonesia’s acting Director General of Mining and Coal (“DGMC”) has issued a letter to the country’s provincial Governors t ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
AUGUST 2020 HBA HITTING ITS LOWEST LEVELS IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of August plunged 30.73% YoY, hitting its lowest levels in history and highlighting ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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