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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 18 August 20
BLACKBALLED: WILL COAL BOUNCE BACK FROM SLUMP OR IS IT TERMINAL? - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Even by the standards of this miserable year, 2020 has been a shocker for the global coal industry.
As the lockdown kicked in demand ...
Friday, 14 August 20
EIA: COAL PLANTS UNECONOMICAL IN MOST REGIONS - IEEFA
U.S. coal power generation plunged by 30 percent in the first half of 2020 off an already-depressed base, shoved out by natural gas and renewables ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDIA SHOULD RECORD A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS, REACHING A VOLUME OF 167 MILLION TONS BY THE END OF 2020 - ASSOCARBONI
Regarding 2020 thermal coal imports forecasts, Vietnam’s coal imports showed a very strong growth in the first half of 2020 and it is believe ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDONESIA REMAINS THE LARGEST EXPORTER OF COAL IN THE WORLD - ASSOCARBONI
According to the last Assocarboni data for 2019, Indonesia remains the largest exporter in the world. Thermal coal exports have in fact reached 456 ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
VIETNAM WAS THE PROTAGONIST OF A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 - ASSOCARBONI
The latest Assocarboni data for 2019 also provide a detailed picture on the trend of the global coal import.
According to Assocarbon ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
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