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Monday, 25 May 20
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
 Non-OPEC oil supply continued to increase by 2.0 mb/d in 2019, driven by US shale production, which rose by 1.7 mb/d, amounting to 84% of total non-OPEC supply growth. This growth came despite pipeline constraints in the Permian basin in 1H19, and as independent oil companies began to reduce spending in response to investor demands to raise free cash flow. With regard to infrastructure, Canada also suffered from limited pipeline and storage capacity, which led to a mandate to curtail oil sands production by the Alberta provincial government. Liquids production in Brazil, Australia, Russia and China also contributed to the gains, while part of this growth was offset by heavy declines in Mexico and Norway.
Capital expenditure, including exploration capex in non-OPEC countries, reached a record high of US$741 bn in 2014 when oil price levels were also high. However, in the years that followed and with lower average oil prices, investment dropped to considerably lower levels in 2016. Moreover, since the beginning of the renewed decline in oil prices in 4Q18, the amount of capex has also decreased to US$459 bn in 2019. Capex in 2020 is forecast to show a y-o-y decline of 23%, according to preliminary estimations, which is only approximately half of level of capex in 2014. The COVID-19 pandemic, which began in 1Q20 has spread globally in a matter of a couple of months, has caused a recession in the global economy as well as an unprecedented oil demand shock, leading to large oversupply in the oil market.
In response to this sudden and huge market imbalance, OPEC and the 10 non-OPEC participants in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC), decided to adjust down their combined current production by 9.7 mb/d in May and June 2020, to be followed by a combined reduction of 7.7 mb/d in 2H20 and by 5.8 mb/d for a period of 16 months, from 1 January 2021 to 30 April 2022. Furthermore, on 12 May 2020, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait announced that they would voluntarily deepen oil output adjustments from June, by 1 mb/d, 100 tb/d and 80 tb/d, respectively, in an effort to expedite draining a global supply glut and rebalancing the oil market. Outside of the DoC, other non-OPEC producers, particularly US producers, reduced their production by shutting-in producing wells or adjusting down the rate of production. According to different sources and company announcements, US producers – including oil majors – have so far cut production by at least 1.5 mb/d in 2Q20, which is likely to be achieved by shut-ins of higher-cost wells, partial reductions in output of selected wells and the deferral of “putting on production” wells.
Additionally, 2020 oil production in Canada, particularly Alberta’s bitumen and synthetic crude, is forecast to decline by 0.4 mb/d on an annual basis, on reduced upstream capex of the main operators and shut-ins/curtailment announcements of around 1.0 mb/d.
Globally, outside of the DoC, as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have so far been announced in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. With this, non-OPEC supply in 2020 is expected to see a deep contraction of 3.5 mb/d mainly in the US, Russia and Canada, as only few countries will to show some supply growth in 2020 such as Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia.
The speedy supply adjustments in addressing the current acute imbalance in the global oil market has already started showing positive response, with rebalancing expected to pick up faster in the coming quarters.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 18 February 20
CORONAVIRUS AND ITS IMPACT ON YOUR CONTRACT - CAN YOU RELY ON 'FORCE MAJEURE'? - INCE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 30 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus (officially t ...
Monday, 17 February 20
IMO-2020 SULPHUR CAP - ISSUES TO CONSIDER PRIOR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CARRIAGE BAN ON 1 MARCH 2020 - STANDARD CLUB
With the IMO 2020 global sulphur cap now in force, members should bear in mind another significant date in relation to the ‘carriage ban&rsqu ...
Monday, 17 February 20
COVID-19: THE EFFECT OF THIS PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY ON CHARTERPARTY TERMS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Is it useful to compare the COVID-19 with earlier disease outbreaks?
A comparison with the Ebola outbreak ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - REUTERS
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
CHEN ZHIDA: NOVEL CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR CHARTERPARTIES - SHIPOWNERS' CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Last month, the Club issued a bulletin on the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) which explained the origin of the virus a ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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