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Monday, 25 May 20
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
 Non-OPEC oil supply continued to increase by 2.0 mb/d in 2019, driven by US shale production, which rose by 1.7 mb/d, amounting to 84% of total non-OPEC supply growth. This growth came despite pipeline constraints in the Permian basin in 1H19, and as independent oil companies began to reduce spending in response to investor demands to raise free cash flow. With regard to infrastructure, Canada also suffered from limited pipeline and storage capacity, which led to a mandate to curtail oil sands production by the Alberta provincial government. Liquids production in Brazil, Australia, Russia and China also contributed to the gains, while part of this growth was offset by heavy declines in Mexico and Norway.
Capital expenditure, including exploration capex in non-OPEC countries, reached a record high of US$741 bn in 2014 when oil price levels were also high. However, in the years that followed and with lower average oil prices, investment dropped to considerably lower levels in 2016. Moreover, since the beginning of the renewed decline in oil prices in 4Q18, the amount of capex has also decreased to US$459 bn in 2019. Capex in 2020 is forecast to show a y-o-y decline of 23%, according to preliminary estimations, which is only approximately half of level of capex in 2014. The COVID-19 pandemic, which began in 1Q20 has spread globally in a matter of a couple of months, has caused a recession in the global economy as well as an unprecedented oil demand shock, leading to large oversupply in the oil market.
In response to this sudden and huge market imbalance, OPEC and the 10 non-OPEC participants in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC), decided to adjust down their combined current production by 9.7 mb/d in May and June 2020, to be followed by a combined reduction of 7.7 mb/d in 2H20 and by 5.8 mb/d for a period of 16 months, from 1 January 2021 to 30 April 2022. Furthermore, on 12 May 2020, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait announced that they would voluntarily deepen oil output adjustments from June, by 1 mb/d, 100 tb/d and 80 tb/d, respectively, in an effort to expedite draining a global supply glut and rebalancing the oil market. Outside of the DoC, other non-OPEC producers, particularly US producers, reduced their production by shutting-in producing wells or adjusting down the rate of production. According to different sources and company announcements, US producers – including oil majors – have so far cut production by at least 1.5 mb/d in 2Q20, which is likely to be achieved by shut-ins of higher-cost wells, partial reductions in output of selected wells and the deferral of “putting on production” wells.
Additionally, 2020 oil production in Canada, particularly Alberta’s bitumen and synthetic crude, is forecast to decline by 0.4 mb/d on an annual basis, on reduced upstream capex of the main operators and shut-ins/curtailment announcements of around 1.0 mb/d.
Globally, outside of the DoC, as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have so far been announced in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. With this, non-OPEC supply in 2020 is expected to see a deep contraction of 3.5 mb/d mainly in the US, Russia and Canada, as only few countries will to show some supply growth in 2020 such as Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia.
The speedy supply adjustments in addressing the current acute imbalance in the global oil market has already started showing positive response, with rebalancing expected to pick up faster in the coming quarters.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 19 February 20
AS OCEAN TEMPERATURES RISE, SHIPOWNERS LOOK FOR WAYS TO COPE - WARTSILA
The world is heating up, and its oceans are no exception. According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the oceans absorb the majo ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The coronavirus outbreak is estimated to negatively affect global economy by at least EUR400bn this year, representing around the 0.4% of global GD ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO SHIPPED 27 PERCENT OF ITS TOTAL COAL PRODUCTION IN 2019 TO INDIA AND CHINA
PT Adaro Energy Tbk (AE) produced 58.03 Mt of coal from PT Adaro Indonesia (AI), Balangan Coal Companies and Adaro Me ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO REMAINS POSITIVE ON THE LONG-TERM FUNDAMENTALS OF COAL MARKET SUPPORTED BY THE SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA REGION
The global seaborne thermal coal market in 2019 was faced with macro and industry challenges which pushed international coa ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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