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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Tuesday, 25 August 20
INDIA'S IMPORTS FALL AS LOCKDOWNS IMPACT THE POWER AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS - REPORT
India is the world’s second largest thermal coal consumer and importer, importing an estimated 211 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019.&nb ...
Monday, 24 August 20
A COMBINATION OF DEVELOPMENTS DROVE THE FALLOFF COAL PRICES - CHIEF ECONOMIST’ OFFICE, AUSTRALIA
China, rising domestic production combined with subdued power demand;
India, a lockdown coupled with government directives that fav ...
Monday, 24 August 20
AUSTRALIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP FROM AN ESTIMATED $20 BILLION IN 2019-20 TO $16 BILLION IN 2020-21: REPORT
Thermal coal spot prices have fallen sharply as the impact of COVID-19 drives a contraction in seaborne trade for only the second time this century ...
Saturday, 22 August 20
REPORT SEES INDIA’S RELIANCE ON THERMAL POWER DROPPING TO 50% IN 2021, 43% IN 2026 - ET ENERGY | IEEFA
India’s dependence on thermal power will reduce to 50 per cent by 2021-22 and 43 per cent by 2026-27 on the back of renewable energy (RE) cap ...
Friday, 21 August 20
323 MILLION ELECTRIC VEHICLES WILL BE ON THE ROADS BY 2040 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Electric vehicle (EV) sales are expected to reach 45 million units per year by 2040, with a total global EV stock of 323 million, according to new ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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