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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Sunday, 30 August 20
PANAMAX - THIS WEEK THE DEMAND HAS PICKED UP, BUT THE TONNAGE LIST IS INCREASING DAY BY DAY - FEARNLEYS
Cape Size
More or less flat from previous week, with cape rates moving from US$ 19,500 to 18,900 on average. West Australia however being more ...
Saturday, 29 August 20
COAL INDIA'S FUEL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS ABOUT 20% IN APR-JUL: PTI
State-owned Coal India”s fuel supply to the power sector registered a decline of 19.5 per cent to 126.30 million tonnes (MT) in the April-Jul ...
Saturday, 29 August 20
SOUTH KOREAN BROKERAGE FIRM KOREA INVESTMENT & SECURITIES TO STOP ALL COAL BUSINESS - KOREA HERALD
South Korean brokerage firm Korea Investment & Securities has decided to stop its investments in coal, in line with the Moon Jae-in administrat ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 985,000 TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR NOVEMBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 985,000 ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS SET REGION-WIDE RENEWABLE ENERGY GOAL OF 23 PERCENT BY 2025 - ASEAN POST
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has set an ambitious target of securing 23 percent of its primary energy from renewable so ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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