We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
 OPEC released its much anticipated April monthly report.
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, recording their deepest monthly drop since the global financial crisis in 2008. The ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic were the main driving force, resulting in unprecedented worldwide oil demand shock and massive sell-offs in the global oil markets, amid a significant crude surplus. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value was down by $21.61, or 38.9%, m-o-m, to stand at $33.92/b, the lowest monthly value since September 2003. ICE Brent declined by $21.75, or 39.2%, m-o-m, to average $33.73/b, while NYMEX WTI fell $20.09, or 39.8%, to average $30.45/b. The term structure of all three crude benchmarks – ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and DME Oman – moved to a super contango in March, and money managers cut speculative net long positions.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a severe recession in 2020, declining by 1.5%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Following tender signs of improvement at the beginning of the year, expectations for global economic growth were quickly burdened by the strong impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 4.1% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 6.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 3.9% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.5%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20 and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to grow by only 2.0%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 2.4% in 2020, following growth of 1.0% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 0.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.4% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices. As risk remains to be skewed to the downside, further revisions may be warranted going forward.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth forecast for 2019 is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d, compared with the previous month’s assessment. For 2020, the world oil demand growth forecast is revised lower by 6.9 mb/d, to a historical drop of around 6.8 mb/d. The contraction in the 2Q of this year is expected to be around 12 mb/d, with April witnessing the worst contraction at about 20 mb/d. The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in China in 1Q20, and its negative impact on transportation and industrial fuels in the country, has since spread globally and is now affecting oil demand growth in most other countries and regions, with an unprecedented impact on global oil demand, transportation fuels in particular. As a result, OECD oil demand is revised lower by 3.7 mb/d to decline by 4.0 mb/d, while non-OECD oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 3.2 mb/d to contract by 2.9 mb/d for the year. Considering latest developments, and the large uncertainties going forward, downward risks remain significant, suggesting possibility of further adjustments, especially in the 2Q, should new data and further developments warrant revisions.
World Oil Supply Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2019 is revised down by 0.01 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now estimated at 1.98 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to decline by 1.50 mb/d, a downward revision of 3.26 mb/d from the previous projection. The impact of COVID-19, ensuing global economic recession and oil demand shock, will also lead to supply disruptions. Benchmark oil prices plunge prompted companies to respond by cutting capital expenditure to the lowest in 13 years. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US was revised down by 1.05 mb/d to show a decline of 0.15 mb/d y-o-y. The supply growth for the 10 non-OPEC countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation has also been adjusted lower. Oil supply in 2020 is now forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 will grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In March, OPEC crude oil production increased by 821 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.61 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Global refinery margins globally showed mixed performance during March. In the US, margins weakened as strength in gasoil/diesel was offset by losses in gasoline cracks, as complex margins came close to negative territory. In Europe, product markets strengthened slightly at the middle of the barrel, supported by a fall in feedstock prices. An already relatively tight global gasoil market saw support from output cuts and continued critical industrial activities for essential services and goods amid COVID-19. However, in Asia, margins eased towards the end of the month, pressured by a weaker top of the barrel, despite healthy gasoil and fuel oil crack spreads.
Tanker Market
The tanker market has been one of few segments of the oil industry that enjoyed positive momentum in March. A sudden surge in crude exports boosted demand for VLCCs, which pulled up Suezmax rates as well. Dirty spot freight rates declined mid-month before climbing again as the market was supported by high demand for tankers as charterers rushed to place cargoes amid a collapse in demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Increased options for time-chartering, including for floating storage, underscored the build-up of excess supply of crude and products in the market. For the month, dirty spot rates averaged 69% higher m-o-m in March. Clean tanker spot freight rates rose 12% m-o-m, as the need to find homes for excess product supplies supported the market.
Trade
Crude and product trade flows have been notably affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the uncertain outlook going forward, although there has been some lag in how the various regions have been affected. US crude exports had a strong start to the year, averaging 3.5 mb/d in 1Q20, a gain of 0.8 mb/d over the same quarter last year, as the US remained a net liquids exporter for the seventh-consecutive month. Meanwhile, China’s crude imports averaged 10.5 mb/d over the first two months of 2020, declining from December as disruptions caused by COVID-19 led to some imports being diverted or delayed. Product trade was also affected, with imports and exports averaging 0.3 mb/d lower in the first two months of the year compared to December. Official data showed India’s crude imports increasing slightly in February, although some estimates show a higher jump as the country took in some discounted cargoes diverted from China. India’s crude and product trade is likely to be broadly impacted in March by a government-ordered lockdown.
Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 5.6 mb, m-o-m, in February to stand at 2,945 mb. This was 64.3 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 24.7 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks fell by 6.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 11.7 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 5.0 days, m-o-m, in February to stand at 72.7 days. This was 11.5 days above the same period in 2019, and 10.3 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for March showed that US total commercial oil stocks increased by 8.2 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 1,922 mb. This was 31.8 mb, or 1.7%, above the same period a year ago, and 16.2 mb, or 0.8%, lower than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks rose by 25.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 16.8 mb, m-o-m.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.9 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings, the demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is expected at 24.5 mb/d, around 5.4 mb/d lower than the 2019 level, though this remains heavily subject to uncertainty surrounding current market conditions.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 15 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS FALL 6.7% Y/Y ON PORT CURBS - REUTERS
China’s coal imports dropped 6.7% in June from the same period last year, as stringent import restrictions at ports impeded purchases by trad ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraint ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.75 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 126.01 points Monday, up 0.75 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
TURKEY - A CASE OF UNDECLARED BUNKER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Undeclared/excess bunkers can be considered a criminal act by Turkish customs officials with the ship's crew being ac ...
Monday, 13 July 20
PANAMAX: A TUMULTUOUS WEEK IN THE PANAMAX MARKET ENSURED ALL MARKETS GAINED VALUE ON THE WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week witnessed the dreaded correction in the Capesize market, with the time charter average shedding almost 18 per cent to close ...
|
|
|
Showing 871 to 875 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
|
| |
| |
|
