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Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
 OPEC released its much anticipated April monthly report.
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, recording their deepest monthly drop since the global financial crisis in 2008. The ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic were the main driving force, resulting in unprecedented worldwide oil demand shock and massive sell-offs in the global oil markets, amid a significant crude surplus. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value was down by $21.61, or 38.9%, m-o-m, to stand at $33.92/b, the lowest monthly value since September 2003. ICE Brent declined by $21.75, or 39.2%, m-o-m, to average $33.73/b, while NYMEX WTI fell $20.09, or 39.8%, to average $30.45/b. The term structure of all three crude benchmarks – ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and DME Oman – moved to a super contango in March, and money managers cut speculative net long positions.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a severe recession in 2020, declining by 1.5%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Following tender signs of improvement at the beginning of the year, expectations for global economic growth were quickly burdened by the strong impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 4.1% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 6.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 3.9% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.5%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20 and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to grow by only 2.0%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 2.4% in 2020, following growth of 1.0% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 0.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.4% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices. As risk remains to be skewed to the downside, further revisions may be warranted going forward.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth forecast for 2019 is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d, compared with the previous month’s assessment. For 2020, the world oil demand growth forecast is revised lower by 6.9 mb/d, to a historical drop of around 6.8 mb/d. The contraction in the 2Q of this year is expected to be around 12 mb/d, with April witnessing the worst contraction at about 20 mb/d. The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in China in 1Q20, and its negative impact on transportation and industrial fuels in the country, has since spread globally and is now affecting oil demand growth in most other countries and regions, with an unprecedented impact on global oil demand, transportation fuels in particular. As a result, OECD oil demand is revised lower by 3.7 mb/d to decline by 4.0 mb/d, while non-OECD oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 3.2 mb/d to contract by 2.9 mb/d for the year. Considering latest developments, and the large uncertainties going forward, downward risks remain significant, suggesting possibility of further adjustments, especially in the 2Q, should new data and further developments warrant revisions.
World Oil Supply Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2019 is revised down by 0.01 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now estimated at 1.98 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to decline by 1.50 mb/d, a downward revision of 3.26 mb/d from the previous projection. The impact of COVID-19, ensuing global economic recession and oil demand shock, will also lead to supply disruptions. Benchmark oil prices plunge prompted companies to respond by cutting capital expenditure to the lowest in 13 years. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US was revised down by 1.05 mb/d to show a decline of 0.15 mb/d y-o-y. The supply growth for the 10 non-OPEC countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation has also been adjusted lower. Oil supply in 2020 is now forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 will grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In March, OPEC crude oil production increased by 821 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.61 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Global refinery margins globally showed mixed performance during March. In the US, margins weakened as strength in gasoil/diesel was offset by losses in gasoline cracks, as complex margins came close to negative territory. In Europe, product markets strengthened slightly at the middle of the barrel, supported by a fall in feedstock prices. An already relatively tight global gasoil market saw support from output cuts and continued critical industrial activities for essential services and goods amid COVID-19. However, in Asia, margins eased towards the end of the month, pressured by a weaker top of the barrel, despite healthy gasoil and fuel oil crack spreads.
Tanker Market
The tanker market has been one of few segments of the oil industry that enjoyed positive momentum in March. A sudden surge in crude exports boosted demand for VLCCs, which pulled up Suezmax rates as well. Dirty spot freight rates declined mid-month before climbing again as the market was supported by high demand for tankers as charterers rushed to place cargoes amid a collapse in demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Increased options for time-chartering, including for floating storage, underscored the build-up of excess supply of crude and products in the market. For the month, dirty spot rates averaged 69% higher m-o-m in March. Clean tanker spot freight rates rose 12% m-o-m, as the need to find homes for excess product supplies supported the market.
Trade
Crude and product trade flows have been notably affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the uncertain outlook going forward, although there has been some lag in how the various regions have been affected. US crude exports had a strong start to the year, averaging 3.5 mb/d in 1Q20, a gain of 0.8 mb/d over the same quarter last year, as the US remained a net liquids exporter for the seventh-consecutive month. Meanwhile, China’s crude imports averaged 10.5 mb/d over the first two months of 2020, declining from December as disruptions caused by COVID-19 led to some imports being diverted or delayed. Product trade was also affected, with imports and exports averaging 0.3 mb/d lower in the first two months of the year compared to December. Official data showed India’s crude imports increasing slightly in February, although some estimates show a higher jump as the country took in some discounted cargoes diverted from China. India’s crude and product trade is likely to be broadly impacted in March by a government-ordered lockdown.
Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 5.6 mb, m-o-m, in February to stand at 2,945 mb. This was 64.3 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 24.7 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks fell by 6.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 11.7 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 5.0 days, m-o-m, in February to stand at 72.7 days. This was 11.5 days above the same period in 2019, and 10.3 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for March showed that US total commercial oil stocks increased by 8.2 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 1,922 mb. This was 31.8 mb, or 1.7%, above the same period a year ago, and 16.2 mb, or 0.8%, lower than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks rose by 25.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 16.8 mb, m-o-m.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.9 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings, the demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is expected at 24.5 mb/d, around 5.4 mb/d lower than the 2019 level, though this remains heavily subject to uncertainty surrounding current market conditions.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 24 July 20
IPA: THERMAL COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS DECLINE 35 PC TO 17.71 MT IN APR TO JUNE - ECONOMIC TIMES
These ports had handled 27.13 MT of thermal coal and 14.95 MT of coking coal in the April-June period of the previous financial year
...
Thursday, 23 July 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 1.36 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR OCTOBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 1,360,00 ...
Wednesday, 22 July 20
CIL'S COAL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 21% TO 93.5 MT IN APR-JUN QUARTER - PTI
The supply of coal by state-owned Coal India Ltd to the power sector fell 21.7 percent to 93.5 million tonnes (MT) in the first quarter of the ongo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 2.520 MILLION MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO), has issued an international tender for total 840,000 of Bituminous Coal to be used at Bo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL OUTPUT FALLS 1.2% YEAR-ON-YEAR OVER ILLEGAL MINING CHECKS - REUTERS
China’s coal output dropped 1.2% in June on the year to 330 million tonnes, official data showed, as major coal mining areas cracked down on ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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