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Tuesday, 07 April 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 With the first quarter of 2020 now firmly written in the books, it is worth examining what we have witnessed so far in the tanker market. Undoubtedly it was a very interesting quarter with a significant freight boom taking place earlier in the year, tensions among oil producers creating volatile market conditions and the COVID-19 pandemic reshaping the global economic environment said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping in his latest weekly report.
Yiannis Vamvakas further noted that, the truth is that the recent developments as part of the pandemic have affected the whole global economy, diminishing demand for several oil products which in turn has started to show a slight trend in crude oil itself. Looking just at the BDTI index, we can see on absolute terms that the quarterly loss was 12.7%. This is a disappointing figure, Yiannis Vamvakas said, but not devastating especially when it is compared to the dry bulk market, proving that the oil market was able to resist the effects of the global economic downhill that is being witnessed. Adding to this, we noted that both the VLCC and Suezmax TCA have gained 164.4% and 37.7% respectively on a quarterly basis. It seems as though that had it not been for the catastrophic February, things may have been even better for the crude oil tanker segments.
The price war between oil producers has pushed Brent and WTI to record lows, helping demand remain healthy even under the current circumstances, while several tankers have been “taken out” of the global fleet in order to be used as storage. In contrary to all of this, we should note that the Aframax TCA moved in the opposite direction this past quarter, losing about 30.8%. Given that oil price is not expected to move significantly upwards in the coming months (obviously not considering any major shift in production plans of the main oil producers), we are anticipating interest from the charterers’ side to remain intense during the start of the 2nd quarter. Adding to this the glimpse of optimism reflected in the rebound noted in European stock markets on the back of the stabilization seen in the COVID-19 spread, and you could have the basis for a gradual improvement to take place.
Research Analyst of Allied Shipping further noted that, on the supply side, we have seen the global tanker fleet increase by 53 units during 1Q20, with 23 of them being crude oil carriers. This quarterly rise is around 1%, an encouraging figure when compared to the respective fleet expansion of 2.63% noted in 1Q19. On the supply side things remain positive for now, with interest for new-building orders having eased back as of late. However, it is likely that this trend will shift in the near future, as ship recycling activity will now be minimal due to the COVID-19 lockdown measures taken in the Indian Sub-Continent, while at the same time this pause noted in newbuilding activity is expected to be temporary. On the positive side though the orderbook to vintage fleet ratio (a figure that depicts the potential additions compared to potential demolition candidates) holds at fairly good levels. The ratio now holds for the VLCC segment at a mere 13.33%, for the Suezmax 24.00% and for the Aframax 7.89%, the lowest points noted the last 5 years.
Taking into consideration the resilience that crude oil tanker market has shown so far, we anticipate the market to remain on a positive track in the coming quarter, even if there are some signs of volatility emerging. The low-price of oil, the potential that the worst is now behind us and the healthy status of the supply side, all leave space for optimism. However, as we are deliberating on a market that is largely exposed to geo-political events and highly linked to the global economy, it is essential to remember that there could always be another “blank swan” hiding around next turn.
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Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY 8% IN Q1 2020 RELATIVE TO Q1 2019 - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by 8% in Q1 2020 relative to Q1 2019. This significant drop was driven by lower demand in the electricity sect ...
Friday, 01 May 20
LUKOIL SHARES LUBRICANT EXPERIENCE AFTER FIRST 100 DAYS OF OPERATION ON VLSFO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
After 100 days of VLSFO operation, LUKOIL Marine Lubricants is sharing recent experience on VLSFO operation with NAVIGO M ...
Wednesday, 29 April 20
OIL CLOSES IN ON PEAK OVERSUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
Are we now deep in the abyss? Up to our necks in it, if the oil price is any guide. Brent has now tested sub-US$20/bbl in this downturn and WTI sub ...
Monday, 27 April 20
INCIDENT INVESTIGATION: SEARCH FOR THE CAUSE, NOT THE VILLAIN - GARD
Incident investigations often conclude with placing the blame for an incident on the crew. Causes of the incidents are usually identified as proced ...
Monday, 27 April 20
A 58,000DWT VESSEL WAS FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY WC INDIA, AT $4,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The tide turned this week for the Capesize market, as voyage rates registered dramatically falling fuel costs. This was led primarily ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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