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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 10 September 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 TO BE 511 MMST, 28 PER CENT LOWER THAN IN 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 511 million short tons (MMst), 194 MMst (28%) lower than in 2019. Mitigation efforts related t ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA'S DEMAND KEEPING THE DRY BULK MARKET GOING - PETER SAND | BIMCO
Overview
An impressive recovery in Chinese dry bulk imports has protected the industry from the effects of falling demand in the rest of the wo ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
TANKER SHIPPING: FREIGHT RATES BACK AT LOSS-MAKING LEVELS AFTER 12 VERY PROFITABLE MONTHS - BIMCO
Overview
A stunningly strong 12 months for the tanker shipping industry is now being replaced by lower freight rates, as lower oil product ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS STUMBLE IN AUGUST, RAISING RISK OF SLOW RECOVERY - REFINITIV | BANCHERO COSTA
After posting a mild recovery in July, India's coal imports have stumbled in August as the South Asian nation battles to restart it ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
THE FIRST 8 MONTHS OF 2020, INDONESIA EXPORTED 217.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL BASED ON REFINITIV - BANCHERO COSTA
The coal market has been hit by a weaker global economy as a result of COVID-19 pandemic and falling industrial electricity demand ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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