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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 18 September 20
INDIA'S COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT PICKS UP AS INDUSTRIAL USE RISES - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired electricity generation rose 9.4% in the first half of September, provisional government data showed, as demand from indust ...
Friday, 18 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 17 September 20
LAST HOPES FOR DEMAND GROWTH SET TO DISAPPOINT THERMAL COAL EXPORTERS - IEEFA
Asian thermal coal exporters are fighting an uphill battle even in new markets
The world’s largest thermal coal exporter is eyeing new m ...
Wednesday, 16 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Another active week in terms of SnP has concluded in the dry bulk market with a diversified array of transactions recorded. Despite the correction ...
Friday, 11 September 20
IMO 2020: A REVIEW OF THE TRANSITION TO VLSFOS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Many predictions were made in the run up to the imposition of the MARPOL 2020 sulphur cap, none of which was that the tra ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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