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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 01 June 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.02 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 160.06 points Monday, down 0.02 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 01 June 21
BUMA PRODUCED 11.4 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 4Q 2020, 5% LOWER COMPARED TO 12.2 MILLION TONNES IN 4Q 2019
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. presents its newsletter with consolidated financial and operating results that include its primary and wholly-owne ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
PAKISTAN IS PLANNING TO END COAL IMPORTS, WORSENING OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH AFRICAN COAL - IEEFA
The growing and irreversible risks being faced by South African coal exporters
As Thungela Resources’ CEO attempts to talk up ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
G7 COAL FINANCE EXIT AND WHY IT MATTERS FOR INDIA - IEEFA
While India doesn’t rely on export credit finance to fund new coal plants, there are material implications
The commitment by the Group o ...
Saturday, 29 May 21
SKULD’S IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP EXPERIENCE
More than a year has passed since the International Maritime Organization (IMO) mandate for the 0.50% sulphur cap for marine fuel (MARPOL Annex VI) ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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