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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 05 June 21
IT'S TIME FOR THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION TO CHAMPION RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE PHILIPPINES, NOT NUCLEAR OR FOSSIL GAS - IEEFA
Fossil gas and nuclear investments risk locking in costly, outdated infrastructure for the long-term
The United States has spent the ...
Friday, 04 June 21
NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS IN INDIA WILL BE ECONOMICALLY UNVIABLE - IEEFA
Coal capacity additions face major stranded asset risk
Much of India’s 33 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power capacity currently under co ...
Thursday, 03 June 21
JUNE HBA IS HITTING ABOVE $100 AND SETTLED AT ITS HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER 2020
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for June 2021 settles at US$ 100.33 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
INDONESIA RV WAS DOWN TO LOW/MID $20,000S DAY FOR PANAMAX/KAMSARMAX WITH DELIVERY S CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
Panamax
A softening week in the Pacific basin with rates under a downward pressure mainly caused by the oversupply of tonnage in the area, said ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
EUROPEAN UNION'S IRON ORE IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union (27) is currently the fourth largest importer of iron ore in the world, after China, Japan, and South Korea.
Euro ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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