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Friday, 27 March 20
CHINA'S BULKS: THE SENTIMENT GAP BETWEEN STEEL AND COAL WIDENS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China seems to be containing its local coronavirus situation, with imported cases now posing the greater threat. While quarantine measures remain tight in cities such as Beijing and Shanghai – China’s busiest points of entry – economic activity is resuming in lower-risk regions.
Market sentiment for steel is optimistic, with production picking up and inventory finally running down. However, the coal market remains gloomy with weak market fundamentals, bringing both thermal and metallurgical coal prices down.
In this article, analysts Nuomin Han, Zhai Yu, Simon Wu, Zhilu Wang and Ti Guo bring you an update from across China’s bulks sector.
Coal supply: import disruptions continue
Domestic coal supply has already returned to normal, but disruptions remain on the import side. Mongolian coal supply took another twist when border crossings didn’t reopen as scheduled on 16 March – precautionary measures were not well prepared amid confirmation of further coronavirus cases in Mongolia. The reopening of border crossings is now rescheduled for 1 April.
Thermal coal: weak demand adds to an unfavourable outlook
The Qinhuangdao 5,500 price has slid further in the past week, due to weak demand. Daily coal consumption by the six largest gencos in the coastal region remains at 80% of last year’s level. In addition, heating supply in many provinces has ended. The National Bureau of Statistics issued its macroeconomic indicators for the first two months of the year: the slump in figures and the global spread of coronavirus suggest an unfavourable outlook for the coal market.
With no change in the fundamentals, we expect the Qinhuangdao price to keep falling this week.
Metallurgical coal: price pressure won’t ease quickly
While finished steel stockpiles have started to fall, they remain at high levels. As such, coke prices were cut for a fourth time by RMB50/t, despite resistance from coke makers. Some coking plants in northwest China have reported losses after prices have quickly declined by RMB200/t in recent weeks.
Stagnant coke demand has enhanced the fall in coking coal prices in Shanxi, with Liulin #4 dropping RMB70/t in the week and Anze low-sulphur premium HCC falling by RMB110/t.
The price arbitrage between domestic and imported coking coal has narrowed under the weak demand picture, further eroding the price advantage of imported coking coal and ramping up pressure on prices.
We expect downstream industries to continue to recover in the coming weeks, helping steel demand to pick up. However, the pressure on coking coal prices is unlikely to be relieved quickly, as the destocking of steel will take some time. As such, prices will remain weak for a short while.
Steel and iron ore: as downstream operations resumed, inventory started to fall
Just as the market expected, finished steel inventory started to fall as more stable downstream operations resumed. Steel production is also picking up, as more electric arc furnace steelmakers resume operations on improved margin conditions. Rebar spot and futures are particularly firm among other commodities that have been freefalling amid the global financial shock.
Market sentiment shows strong confidence in China’s property sector and the government’s efforts to leverage the economy through infrastructure. Most Chinese-made rebar is consumed domestically. However, oversupply remains a risk – apart from the high finished steel inventory, we shouldn’t forget semi-finished, which isn’t included in the inventory statistics. Official data shows production of crude steel grew 3.1% year-on-year in January and February, but finished steel production dropped 3.4%.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 17 December 19
BACK TO FUTURE FOR BUSH AS AUSTRALIA CONSIDERS MOVING AWAY FROM COAL NEWCASTLE - HERALD
Looking backwards could show the way forward for regional communities planning for a future beyond mining.
One of Australia’s ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.01 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points, down 0.01 percent week on week.
The index, released by China Taiy ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
YEAR 2019: IT IS LOOKING SET THAT THIS YEAR WILL BE ONE OF THE SLOWEST IN TERMS OF DRY BULK NEWBUILDING ACTIVITY - ALLIED
With just two weeks remaining before 2019 comes to an end, it is now looking set that this year will be one of the slowest in terms of dry bulk new ...
Monday, 16 December 19
ULTRAMAX: A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, FOR RE-DELIVERY TO CHINA AT $11,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was one-way traffic for the Capesize market this past week, with all routes giving up value. While downward momentum may have slowe ...
Monday, 16 December 19
THE OUTLOOK FOR U.S. THERMAL COAL IS INCREASINGLY STRESSED - MOODY'S
- Slowing global economic growth, trade tensions will continue to exert influence
- Coal's secular decline will persist in 2020
...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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