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Friday, 27 March 20
CHINA'S BULKS: THE SENTIMENT GAP BETWEEN STEEL AND COAL WIDENS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China seems to be containing its local coronavirus situation, with imported cases now posing the greater threat. While quarantine measures remain tight in cities such as Beijing and Shanghai – China’s busiest points of entry – economic activity is resuming in lower-risk regions.
Market sentiment for steel is optimistic, with production picking up and inventory finally running down. However, the coal market remains gloomy with weak market fundamentals, bringing both thermal and metallurgical coal prices down.
In this article, analysts Nuomin Han, Zhai Yu, Simon Wu, Zhilu Wang and Ti Guo bring you an update from across China’s bulks sector.
Coal supply: import disruptions continue
Domestic coal supply has already returned to normal, but disruptions remain on the import side. Mongolian coal supply took another twist when border crossings didn’t reopen as scheduled on 16 March – precautionary measures were not well prepared amid confirmation of further coronavirus cases in Mongolia. The reopening of border crossings is now rescheduled for 1 April.
Thermal coal: weak demand adds to an unfavourable outlook
The Qinhuangdao 5,500 price has slid further in the past week, due to weak demand. Daily coal consumption by the six largest gencos in the coastal region remains at 80% of last year’s level. In addition, heating supply in many provinces has ended. The National Bureau of Statistics issued its macroeconomic indicators for the first two months of the year: the slump in figures and the global spread of coronavirus suggest an unfavourable outlook for the coal market.
With no change in the fundamentals, we expect the Qinhuangdao price to keep falling this week.
Metallurgical coal: price pressure won’t ease quickly
While finished steel stockpiles have started to fall, they remain at high levels. As such, coke prices were cut for a fourth time by RMB50/t, despite resistance from coke makers. Some coking plants in northwest China have reported losses after prices have quickly declined by RMB200/t in recent weeks.
Stagnant coke demand has enhanced the fall in coking coal prices in Shanxi, with Liulin #4 dropping RMB70/t in the week and Anze low-sulphur premium HCC falling by RMB110/t.
The price arbitrage between domestic and imported coking coal has narrowed under the weak demand picture, further eroding the price advantage of imported coking coal and ramping up pressure on prices.
We expect downstream industries to continue to recover in the coming weeks, helping steel demand to pick up. However, the pressure on coking coal prices is unlikely to be relieved quickly, as the destocking of steel will take some time. As such, prices will remain weak for a short while.
Steel and iron ore: as downstream operations resumed, inventory started to fall
Just as the market expected, finished steel inventory started to fall as more stable downstream operations resumed. Steel production is also picking up, as more electric arc furnace steelmakers resume operations on improved margin conditions. Rebar spot and futures are particularly firm among other commodities that have been freefalling amid the global financial shock.
Market sentiment shows strong confidence in China’s property sector and the government’s efforts to leverage the economy through infrastructure. Most Chinese-made rebar is consumed domestically. However, oversupply remains a risk – apart from the high finished steel inventory, we shouldn’t forget semi-finished, which isn’t included in the inventory statistics. Official data shows production of crude steel grew 3.1% year-on-year in January and February, but finished steel production dropped 3.4%.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Sunday, 22 December 19
TRADING PLACES FOR 2020 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
In the sea of 2020 predictions, Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions sail their own very unique course. For nearly 20 years the Danish investme ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasi ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling t ...
Friday, 20 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 December 19
COAL POWER GENERATION CONTINUES TO DECLINE IN GERMANY: DESTATIS, XINHUA REPORTED
The volume of electricity generated in coal-fired power plants in Germany decreased “markedly” by 37 percent to 34 billion kilowatt-hou ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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