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Friday, 27 March 20
CHINA'S BULKS: THE SENTIMENT GAP BETWEEN STEEL AND COAL WIDENS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China seems to be containing its local coronavirus situation, with imported cases now posing the greater threat. While quarantine measures remain tight in cities such as Beijing and Shanghai – China’s busiest points of entry – economic activity is resuming in lower-risk regions.
Market sentiment for steel is optimistic, with production picking up and inventory finally running down. However, the coal market remains gloomy with weak market fundamentals, bringing both thermal and metallurgical coal prices down.
In this article, analysts Nuomin Han, Zhai Yu, Simon Wu, Zhilu Wang and Ti Guo bring you an update from across China’s bulks sector.
Coal supply: import disruptions continue
Domestic coal supply has already returned to normal, but disruptions remain on the import side. Mongolian coal supply took another twist when border crossings didn’t reopen as scheduled on 16 March – precautionary measures were not well prepared amid confirmation of further coronavirus cases in Mongolia. The reopening of border crossings is now rescheduled for 1 April.
Thermal coal: weak demand adds to an unfavourable outlook
The Qinhuangdao 5,500 price has slid further in the past week, due to weak demand. Daily coal consumption by the six largest gencos in the coastal region remains at 80% of last year’s level. In addition, heating supply in many provinces has ended. The National Bureau of Statistics issued its macroeconomic indicators for the first two months of the year: the slump in figures and the global spread of coronavirus suggest an unfavourable outlook for the coal market.
With no change in the fundamentals, we expect the Qinhuangdao price to keep falling this week.
Metallurgical coal: price pressure won’t ease quickly
While finished steel stockpiles have started to fall, they remain at high levels. As such, coke prices were cut for a fourth time by RMB50/t, despite resistance from coke makers. Some coking plants in northwest China have reported losses after prices have quickly declined by RMB200/t in recent weeks.
Stagnant coke demand has enhanced the fall in coking coal prices in Shanxi, with Liulin #4 dropping RMB70/t in the week and Anze low-sulphur premium HCC falling by RMB110/t.
The price arbitrage between domestic and imported coking coal has narrowed under the weak demand picture, further eroding the price advantage of imported coking coal and ramping up pressure on prices.
We expect downstream industries to continue to recover in the coming weeks, helping steel demand to pick up. However, the pressure on coking coal prices is unlikely to be relieved quickly, as the destocking of steel will take some time. As such, prices will remain weak for a short while.
Steel and iron ore: as downstream operations resumed, inventory started to fall
Just as the market expected, finished steel inventory started to fall as more stable downstream operations resumed. Steel production is also picking up, as more electric arc furnace steelmakers resume operations on improved margin conditions. Rebar spot and futures are particularly firm among other commodities that have been freefalling amid the global financial shock.
Market sentiment shows strong confidence in China’s property sector and the government’s efforts to leverage the economy through infrastructure. Most Chinese-made rebar is consumed domestically. However, oversupply remains a risk – apart from the high finished steel inventory, we shouldn’t forget semi-finished, which isn’t included in the inventory statistics. Official data shows production of crude steel grew 3.1% year-on-year in January and February, but finished steel production dropped 3.4%.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
DRY BULK MARKET: "THIS IS NOT THE END OF COAL" SAYS IEA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A historic drop in coal-fired electricity generation will not sway global coal demand from its upward trajectory through to 2024, though growth wil ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
ARE YOU 95% CONFIDENT THAT YOUR VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL IS ON SPEC AND MARPOL COMPLIANT? - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bunker fuel is a commodity and, like all commodities, is produced and sold according to specifications. Bunkers are usual ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
NEW PRICING COULD SPELL TROUBLE FOR CHINA'S COAL SECTOR - CHINA DIALOGUE
Benchmark coal tariffs have been the foundation of China’s electricity pricing since 2004 but this mechanism was replaced on January 1 with a ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
BALTIC BRIEFING TANKER REPORT - WEEK 2
VLCC
Escalating tensions between the USA and Iran, in addition to a continuing strong market, made for an interesting week, with rates firming ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
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