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Friday, 27 March 20
CHINA'S BULKS: THE SENTIMENT GAP BETWEEN STEEL AND COAL WIDENS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China seems to be containing its local coronavirus situation, with imported cases now posing the greater threat. While quarantine measures remain tight in cities such as Beijing and Shanghai – China’s busiest points of entry – economic activity is resuming in lower-risk regions.
Market sentiment for steel is optimistic, with production picking up and inventory finally running down. However, the coal market remains gloomy with weak market fundamentals, bringing both thermal and metallurgical coal prices down.
In this article, analysts Nuomin Han, Zhai Yu, Simon Wu, Zhilu Wang and Ti Guo bring you an update from across China’s bulks sector.
Coal supply: import disruptions continue
Domestic coal supply has already returned to normal, but disruptions remain on the import side. Mongolian coal supply took another twist when border crossings didn’t reopen as scheduled on 16 March – precautionary measures were not well prepared amid confirmation of further coronavirus cases in Mongolia. The reopening of border crossings is now rescheduled for 1 April.
Thermal coal: weak demand adds to an unfavourable outlook
The Qinhuangdao 5,500 price has slid further in the past week, due to weak demand. Daily coal consumption by the six largest gencos in the coastal region remains at 80% of last year’s level. In addition, heating supply in many provinces has ended. The National Bureau of Statistics issued its macroeconomic indicators for the first two months of the year: the slump in figures and the global spread of coronavirus suggest an unfavourable outlook for the coal market.
With no change in the fundamentals, we expect the Qinhuangdao price to keep falling this week.
Metallurgical coal: price pressure won’t ease quickly
While finished steel stockpiles have started to fall, they remain at high levels. As such, coke prices were cut for a fourth time by RMB50/t, despite resistance from coke makers. Some coking plants in northwest China have reported losses after prices have quickly declined by RMB200/t in recent weeks.
Stagnant coke demand has enhanced the fall in coking coal prices in Shanxi, with Liulin #4 dropping RMB70/t in the week and Anze low-sulphur premium HCC falling by RMB110/t.
The price arbitrage between domestic and imported coking coal has narrowed under the weak demand picture, further eroding the price advantage of imported coking coal and ramping up pressure on prices.
We expect downstream industries to continue to recover in the coming weeks, helping steel demand to pick up. However, the pressure on coking coal prices is unlikely to be relieved quickly, as the destocking of steel will take some time. As such, prices will remain weak for a short while.
Steel and iron ore: as downstream operations resumed, inventory started to fall
Just as the market expected, finished steel inventory started to fall as more stable downstream operations resumed. Steel production is also picking up, as more electric arc furnace steelmakers resume operations on improved margin conditions. Rebar spot and futures are particularly firm among other commodities that have been freefalling amid the global financial shock.
Market sentiment shows strong confidence in China’s property sector and the government’s efforts to leverage the economy through infrastructure. Most Chinese-made rebar is consumed domestically. However, oversupply remains a risk – apart from the high finished steel inventory, we shouldn’t forget semi-finished, which isn’t included in the inventory statistics. Official data shows production of crude steel grew 3.1% year-on-year in January and February, but finished steel production dropped 3.4%.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 18 January 20
GERMAN STEAM COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 PLUMMETED BY 17 % - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
Press Release: According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), world trade in h ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
A 61,400 DWT FIXED FROM SOUTH EAST ASIA DELIVERY EAST KALIMANTAN REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA IN THE LOW $7,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was relatively stable over this past week putting an end to the past months of more extreme declines. While the Capesize 5T ...
Friday, 17 January 20
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 65 MMST (9%) TO 690 MMST IN 2019. IN 2020, COAL PRODUCTION WILL DECLINE BY A FURTHER 14% TO 597 MMST
U.S. Coal Supply.
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production declined by 65 million short tons (MMst) (9%) to 690 MMst in 2019. In 2020, EIA ...
Friday, 17 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index, a gauge of coal p ...
Thursday, 16 January 20
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA ROUND VOYAGE FIXING AROUND LOW/MID USD 6,000 BSS APS INDO - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Still very rough seas for the big ships, with the majority of the fleet trading Far East or fronthaul and consequently earning far les ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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