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Friday, 27 March 20
CHINA'S BULKS: THE SENTIMENT GAP BETWEEN STEEL AND COAL WIDENS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China seems to be containing its local coronavirus situation, with imported cases now posing the greater threat. While quarantine measures remain tight in cities such as Beijing and Shanghai – China’s busiest points of entry – economic activity is resuming in lower-risk regions.
Market sentiment for steel is optimistic, with production picking up and inventory finally running down. However, the coal market remains gloomy with weak market fundamentals, bringing both thermal and metallurgical coal prices down.
In this article, analysts Nuomin Han, Zhai Yu, Simon Wu, Zhilu Wang and Ti Guo bring you an update from across China’s bulks sector.
Coal supply: import disruptions continue
Domestic coal supply has already returned to normal, but disruptions remain on the import side. Mongolian coal supply took another twist when border crossings didn’t reopen as scheduled on 16 March – precautionary measures were not well prepared amid confirmation of further coronavirus cases in Mongolia. The reopening of border crossings is now rescheduled for 1 April.
Thermal coal: weak demand adds to an unfavourable outlook
The Qinhuangdao 5,500 price has slid further in the past week, due to weak demand. Daily coal consumption by the six largest gencos in the coastal region remains at 80% of last year’s level. In addition, heating supply in many provinces has ended. The National Bureau of Statistics issued its macroeconomic indicators for the first two months of the year: the slump in figures and the global spread of coronavirus suggest an unfavourable outlook for the coal market.
With no change in the fundamentals, we expect the Qinhuangdao price to keep falling this week.
Metallurgical coal: price pressure won’t ease quickly
While finished steel stockpiles have started to fall, they remain at high levels. As such, coke prices were cut for a fourth time by RMB50/t, despite resistance from coke makers. Some coking plants in northwest China have reported losses after prices have quickly declined by RMB200/t in recent weeks.
Stagnant coke demand has enhanced the fall in coking coal prices in Shanxi, with Liulin #4 dropping RMB70/t in the week and Anze low-sulphur premium HCC falling by RMB110/t.
The price arbitrage between domestic and imported coking coal has narrowed under the weak demand picture, further eroding the price advantage of imported coking coal and ramping up pressure on prices.
We expect downstream industries to continue to recover in the coming weeks, helping steel demand to pick up. However, the pressure on coking coal prices is unlikely to be relieved quickly, as the destocking of steel will take some time. As such, prices will remain weak for a short while.
Steel and iron ore: as downstream operations resumed, inventory started to fall
Just as the market expected, finished steel inventory started to fall as more stable downstream operations resumed. Steel production is also picking up, as more electric arc furnace steelmakers resume operations on improved margin conditions. Rebar spot and futures are particularly firm among other commodities that have been freefalling amid the global financial shock.
Market sentiment shows strong confidence in China’s property sector and the government’s efforts to leverage the economy through infrastructure. Most Chinese-made rebar is consumed domestically. However, oversupply remains a risk – apart from the high finished steel inventory, we shouldn’t forget semi-finished, which isn’t included in the inventory statistics. Official data shows production of crude steel grew 3.1% year-on-year in January and February, but finished steel production dropped 3.4%.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 15 February 20
AFRAMAX: A MORE POSITIVE ATTITUDE EXISTED IN THIS SECTOR WITH RATES IMPROVING ON ALL ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
VLCC
The market in the Middle East was unmoved this week, with Chinese refiners continuing to slow imports, allied with the impact of the Coron ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
A 56,000DWT VESSEL WAS CONCLUDED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Riding the downward momentum of the previous week, the market was always going to be hard pressed to make any sort of revival. With mu ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION WILL TOTAL 595 MMST IN 2020, DOWN 14% FROM 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019.
Lower ...
Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between Chin ...
Friday, 14 February 20
KOWEPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.275 MILLION TONS OF MIN. 5,600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co. Ltd (KOWEPO). as a representative of five Korean Gencos has issued an international tender for total 1,275,00 ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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