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Friday, 27 March 20
CHINA'S BULKS: THE SENTIMENT GAP BETWEEN STEEL AND COAL WIDENS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China seems to be containing its local coronavirus situation, with imported cases now posing the greater threat. While quarantine measures remain tight in cities such as Beijing and Shanghai – China’s busiest points of entry – economic activity is resuming in lower-risk regions.
Market sentiment for steel is optimistic, with production picking up and inventory finally running down. However, the coal market remains gloomy with weak market fundamentals, bringing both thermal and metallurgical coal prices down.
In this article, analysts Nuomin Han, Zhai Yu, Simon Wu, Zhilu Wang and Ti Guo bring you an update from across China’s bulks sector.
Coal supply: import disruptions continue
Domestic coal supply has already returned to normal, but disruptions remain on the import side. Mongolian coal supply took another twist when border crossings didn’t reopen as scheduled on 16 March – precautionary measures were not well prepared amid confirmation of further coronavirus cases in Mongolia. The reopening of border crossings is now rescheduled for 1 April.
Thermal coal: weak demand adds to an unfavourable outlook
The Qinhuangdao 5,500 price has slid further in the past week, due to weak demand. Daily coal consumption by the six largest gencos in the coastal region remains at 80% of last year’s level. In addition, heating supply in many provinces has ended. The National Bureau of Statistics issued its macroeconomic indicators for the first two months of the year: the slump in figures and the global spread of coronavirus suggest an unfavourable outlook for the coal market.
With no change in the fundamentals, we expect the Qinhuangdao price to keep falling this week.
Metallurgical coal: price pressure won’t ease quickly
While finished steel stockpiles have started to fall, they remain at high levels. As such, coke prices were cut for a fourth time by RMB50/t, despite resistance from coke makers. Some coking plants in northwest China have reported losses after prices have quickly declined by RMB200/t in recent weeks.
Stagnant coke demand has enhanced the fall in coking coal prices in Shanxi, with Liulin #4 dropping RMB70/t in the week and Anze low-sulphur premium HCC falling by RMB110/t.
The price arbitrage between domestic and imported coking coal has narrowed under the weak demand picture, further eroding the price advantage of imported coking coal and ramping up pressure on prices.
We expect downstream industries to continue to recover in the coming weeks, helping steel demand to pick up. However, the pressure on coking coal prices is unlikely to be relieved quickly, as the destocking of steel will take some time. As such, prices will remain weak for a short while.
Steel and iron ore: as downstream operations resumed, inventory started to fall
Just as the market expected, finished steel inventory started to fall as more stable downstream operations resumed. Steel production is also picking up, as more electric arc furnace steelmakers resume operations on improved margin conditions. Rebar spot and futures are particularly firm among other commodities that have been freefalling amid the global financial shock.
Market sentiment shows strong confidence in China’s property sector and the government’s efforts to leverage the economy through infrastructure. Most Chinese-made rebar is consumed domestically. However, oversupply remains a risk – apart from the high finished steel inventory, we shouldn’t forget semi-finished, which isn’t included in the inventory statistics. Official data shows production of crude steel grew 3.1% year-on-year in January and February, but finished steel production dropped 3.4%.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 19 February 20
AS OCEAN TEMPERATURES RISE, SHIPOWNERS LOOK FOR WAYS TO COPE - WARTSILA
The world is heating up, and its oceans are no exception. According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the oceans absorb the majo ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The coronavirus outbreak is estimated to negatively affect global economy by at least EUR400bn this year, representing around the 0.4% of global GD ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO SHIPPED 27 PERCENT OF ITS TOTAL COAL PRODUCTION IN 2019 TO INDIA AND CHINA
PT Adaro Energy Tbk (AE) produced 58.03 Mt of coal from PT Adaro Indonesia (AI), Balangan Coal Companies and Adaro Me ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO REMAINS POSITIVE ON THE LONG-TERM FUNDAMENTALS OF COAL MARKET SUPPORTED BY THE SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA REGION
The global seaborne thermal coal market in 2019 was faced with macro and industry challenges which pushed international coa ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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