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Friday, 27 March 20
CHINA'S BULKS: THE SENTIMENT GAP BETWEEN STEEL AND COAL WIDENS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China seems to be containing its local coronavirus situation, with imported cases now posing the greater threat. While quarantine measures remain tight in cities such as Beijing and Shanghai – China’s busiest points of entry – economic activity is resuming in lower-risk regions.
Market sentiment for steel is optimistic, with production picking up and inventory finally running down. However, the coal market remains gloomy with weak market fundamentals, bringing both thermal and metallurgical coal prices down.
In this article, analysts Nuomin Han, Zhai Yu, Simon Wu, Zhilu Wang and Ti Guo bring you an update from across China’s bulks sector.
Coal supply: import disruptions continue
Domestic coal supply has already returned to normal, but disruptions remain on the import side. Mongolian coal supply took another twist when border crossings didn’t reopen as scheduled on 16 March – precautionary measures were not well prepared amid confirmation of further coronavirus cases in Mongolia. The reopening of border crossings is now rescheduled for 1 April.
Thermal coal: weak demand adds to an unfavourable outlook
The Qinhuangdao 5,500 price has slid further in the past week, due to weak demand. Daily coal consumption by the six largest gencos in the coastal region remains at 80% of last year’s level. In addition, heating supply in many provinces has ended. The National Bureau of Statistics issued its macroeconomic indicators for the first two months of the year: the slump in figures and the global spread of coronavirus suggest an unfavourable outlook for the coal market.
With no change in the fundamentals, we expect the Qinhuangdao price to keep falling this week.
Metallurgical coal: price pressure won’t ease quickly
While finished steel stockpiles have started to fall, they remain at high levels. As such, coke prices were cut for a fourth time by RMB50/t, despite resistance from coke makers. Some coking plants in northwest China have reported losses after prices have quickly declined by RMB200/t in recent weeks.
Stagnant coke demand has enhanced the fall in coking coal prices in Shanxi, with Liulin #4 dropping RMB70/t in the week and Anze low-sulphur premium HCC falling by RMB110/t.
The price arbitrage between domestic and imported coking coal has narrowed under the weak demand picture, further eroding the price advantage of imported coking coal and ramping up pressure on prices.
We expect downstream industries to continue to recover in the coming weeks, helping steel demand to pick up. However, the pressure on coking coal prices is unlikely to be relieved quickly, as the destocking of steel will take some time. As such, prices will remain weak for a short while.
Steel and iron ore: as downstream operations resumed, inventory started to fall
Just as the market expected, finished steel inventory started to fall as more stable downstream operations resumed. Steel production is also picking up, as more electric arc furnace steelmakers resume operations on improved margin conditions. Rebar spot and futures are particularly firm among other commodities that have been freefalling amid the global financial shock.
Market sentiment shows strong confidence in China’s property sector and the government’s efforts to leverage the economy through infrastructure. Most Chinese-made rebar is consumed domestically. However, oversupply remains a risk – apart from the high finished steel inventory, we shouldn’t forget semi-finished, which isn’t included in the inventory statistics. Official data shows production of crude steel grew 3.1% year-on-year in January and February, but finished steel production dropped 3.4%.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing chal ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
INDONESIA TO CANCEL RULES REQUIRING DOMESTIC SHIPS FOR COAL, PALM EXPORTS : REFINITIV
Indonesia's government will revoke rules requiring exporters of coal and palm oil to use domestic shipping companies for shipments, Coordinatin ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
JAN-FEB 2020, INDONESIA SHIPPED 64.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL, UP +3.4% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of calendar 2019, Indonesia exported 386.4 mln tonnes of coal, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This represents a ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
As countries around the world struggle to take back control of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic the global economy shuts down bit by bit, leaving only ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
THE TRIPLE SHOCK OF CORONAVIRUS IN SHIPPING: WILL IT LAST? - DREWRY
Transport capacity shortages, disruptions to supply chains and inability to plan since late January have been a dangerous combination. But will all ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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