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Friday, 27 March 20
CHINA'S BULKS: THE SENTIMENT GAP BETWEEN STEEL AND COAL WIDENS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China seems to be containing its local coronavirus situation, with imported cases now posing the greater threat. While quarantine measures remain tight in cities such as Beijing and Shanghai – China’s busiest points of entry – economic activity is resuming in lower-risk regions.
Market sentiment for steel is optimistic, with production picking up and inventory finally running down. However, the coal market remains gloomy with weak market fundamentals, bringing both thermal and metallurgical coal prices down.
In this article, analysts Nuomin Han, Zhai Yu, Simon Wu, Zhilu Wang and Ti Guo bring you an update from across China’s bulks sector.
Coal supply: import disruptions continue
Domestic coal supply has already returned to normal, but disruptions remain on the import side. Mongolian coal supply took another twist when border crossings didn’t reopen as scheduled on 16 March – precautionary measures were not well prepared amid confirmation of further coronavirus cases in Mongolia. The reopening of border crossings is now rescheduled for 1 April.
Thermal coal: weak demand adds to an unfavourable outlook
The Qinhuangdao 5,500 price has slid further in the past week, due to weak demand. Daily coal consumption by the six largest gencos in the coastal region remains at 80% of last year’s level. In addition, heating supply in many provinces has ended. The National Bureau of Statistics issued its macroeconomic indicators for the first two months of the year: the slump in figures and the global spread of coronavirus suggest an unfavourable outlook for the coal market.
With no change in the fundamentals, we expect the Qinhuangdao price to keep falling this week.
Metallurgical coal: price pressure won’t ease quickly
While finished steel stockpiles have started to fall, they remain at high levels. As such, coke prices were cut for a fourth time by RMB50/t, despite resistance from coke makers. Some coking plants in northwest China have reported losses after prices have quickly declined by RMB200/t in recent weeks.
Stagnant coke demand has enhanced the fall in coking coal prices in Shanxi, with Liulin #4 dropping RMB70/t in the week and Anze low-sulphur premium HCC falling by RMB110/t.
The price arbitrage between domestic and imported coking coal has narrowed under the weak demand picture, further eroding the price advantage of imported coking coal and ramping up pressure on prices.
We expect downstream industries to continue to recover in the coming weeks, helping steel demand to pick up. However, the pressure on coking coal prices is unlikely to be relieved quickly, as the destocking of steel will take some time. As such, prices will remain weak for a short while.
Steel and iron ore: as downstream operations resumed, inventory started to fall
Just as the market expected, finished steel inventory started to fall as more stable downstream operations resumed. Steel production is also picking up, as more electric arc furnace steelmakers resume operations on improved margin conditions. Rebar spot and futures are particularly firm among other commodities that have been freefalling amid the global financial shock.
Market sentiment shows strong confidence in China’s property sector and the government’s efforts to leverage the economy through infrastructure. Most Chinese-made rebar is consumed domestically. However, oversupply remains a risk – apart from the high finished steel inventory, we shouldn’t forget semi-finished, which isn’t included in the inventory statistics. Official data shows production of crude steel grew 3.1% year-on-year in January and February, but finished steel production dropped 3.4%.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing chal ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
INDONESIA TO CANCEL RULES REQUIRING DOMESTIC SHIPS FOR COAL, PALM EXPORTS : REFINITIV
Indonesia's government will revoke rules requiring exporters of coal and palm oil to use domestic shipping companies for shipments, Coordinatin ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
JAN-FEB 2020, INDONESIA SHIPPED 64.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL, UP +3.4% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of calendar 2019, Indonesia exported 386.4 mln tonnes of coal, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This represents a ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
As countries around the world struggle to take back control of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic the global economy shuts down bit by bit, leaving only ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
THE TRIPLE SHOCK OF CORONAVIRUS IN SHIPPING: WILL IT LAST? - DREWRY
Transport capacity shortages, disruptions to supply chains and inability to plan since late January have been a dangerous combination. But will all ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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