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Wednesday, 25 March 20
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IS CRUSHING GLOBAL GDP GROWTH - FITCH RATINGS
 The coronavirus crisis is crushing global GDP growth according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO) published today.
“The level of world GDP is falling. For all intents and purposes we are in global recession territory,” said Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings.
We have nearly halved the Fitch baseline global growth forecast for 2020 – to just 1.3% from 2.5% in the December 2019 GEO. The revision leaves 2020 global GDP USD850 billion lower than in the previous forecast. But we could very easily see an outright decline in global GDP this year if more pervasive lockdown measures have to be rolled out across all the G7 economies. Emergency macro policy responses are purely about damage limitation at this stage but should help secure a ‘V-shaped’ recovery in 2H20, although this assumes that the health crisis eases.
The shock to the Chinese economy has been very severe. GDP is likely to fall by over 5% (not annualised) in 1Q20 and to be down by 1% year-on-year. Falling GDP in China is virtually unprecedented and, in the near term at least, these numbers look worse than most previous hypothetical ‘hard-landing’ scenarios. The good news is that the daily number of new COVID-19 cases in China has fallen very sharply, which should pave the way for a marked economic recovery in 2Q20 – high-frequency indicators already point to this starting in March.
Nevertheless, the delayed impact of supply-chain disruptions and lower Chinese demand on the rest of the world will continue to be felt profoundly for some time, particularly in the rest of Asia and the eurozone.
Moreover the rapid spread of the virus outside China has prompted sharp declines in travel and tourism, and the cancellation of business and leisure events worldwide as ‘social distancing’ takes hold. And some other large advanced countries – most notably Italy and Spain (and more recently in France, though after our forecast numbers were finalized) have engaged in aggressive official lockdown responses similar to those seen in China. These countries are likely to see very sizeable outright declines in GDP in the coming months.
The interruptions to economic activity seen in China – and now in Italy – are on a scale and speed rarely seen other than during periods of military conflict, natural disasters or financial crises. While there is huge uncertainty, quarterly declines in GDP of 3% to 5% (not annualised) in a full lockdown scenario look feasible. The risk is that we shortly see these abrupt interruptions happening simultaneously across all major economies as the global pandemic spreads.
Our baseline global economic forecasts have been aggressively lowered. Even though we expect a recovery in China from 2Q20, Chinese growth is expected to fall just 3.7% for the year as a whole, down from 6.1% in 2019. We forecast Italian GDP to fall by 2% this year and Spanish GDP by almost 1%.
Our baseline forecasts do not yet assume that full-scale lockdowns take place in across all the major European countries or the US (forecasts were finalised on 16 March). But even on this basis we now expect eurozone growth to be minus 0.4% this year. The baseline forecast for US growth is 1% in 2020 compared with a pre-virus outlook of 2% and GDP is expected to fall by 0.5% (or 2% annualised) in 2Q20.
This reflects the likelihood that travel, tourism, and business and leisure events will be disrupted for months, the collapse in the equity market, lower business and consumer confidence, and other disruptions to US economic activity that are emerging as authorities seek to contain the virus. We expect global growth to fall to 1.3% in 2020 from 2.7% in 2019, which would be weaker than global downturns in the early 1990s and in 2001.
The high risk of escalating lockdown responses across the major economies means that the chances of a weaker outcome are very substantial. A downside variant to our baseline forecast shows global GDP falling this year – an extremely rare occurrence in the post-war period – with GDP in Europe down by over 1.5%, US GDP down by nearly 1% and Chinese growth slipping to just over 2%.
Our oil price forecast has been lowered to USD41/bbl (Brent) for 2020 (annual average) from USD62.5/bbl in the December GEO. With the collapse of ‘OPEC+’ co-operation boosting prospects for OPEC supply, we now expect oil prices to average USD48/bbl in 2021 compared to our previous forecast of USD60/bbl.
Emergency macro policy responses are being announced on a massive scale, following a similar playbook to the global financial crisis. These include aggressive interest rate cuts, huge injections of central bank liquidity, macro-prudential easing and the creation of credit support facilities. Large-scale fiscal easing packages and the unveiling of hundred billion dollar-scale sovereign credit-guarantee schemes are also being used to help the private sector withstand shocks from measures necessary to contain the health crisis.
“Rapid and large-scale macro policy responses are all about damage limitation in the near-term, but policy easing should help GDP normalize and recover quickly in the second half of the year on the assumption that the health crisis subsides,” said Coulton. “However the uncertainties here are huge and we are really only at the beginning of the process of trying to understand the full impact of the crisis on the world economy”.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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