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Wednesday, 25 March 20
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IS CRUSHING GLOBAL GDP GROWTH - FITCH RATINGS
 The coronavirus crisis is crushing global GDP growth according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO) published today.
“The level of world GDP is falling. For all intents and purposes we are in global recession territory,” said Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings.
We have nearly halved the Fitch baseline global growth forecast for 2020 – to just 1.3% from 2.5% in the December 2019 GEO. The revision leaves 2020 global GDP USD850 billion lower than in the previous forecast. But we could very easily see an outright decline in global GDP this year if more pervasive lockdown measures have to be rolled out across all the G7 economies. Emergency macro policy responses are purely about damage limitation at this stage but should help secure a ‘V-shaped’ recovery in 2H20, although this assumes that the health crisis eases.
The shock to the Chinese economy has been very severe. GDP is likely to fall by over 5% (not annualised) in 1Q20 and to be down by 1% year-on-year. Falling GDP in China is virtually unprecedented and, in the near term at least, these numbers look worse than most previous hypothetical ‘hard-landing’ scenarios. The good news is that the daily number of new COVID-19 cases in China has fallen very sharply, which should pave the way for a marked economic recovery in 2Q20 – high-frequency indicators already point to this starting in March.
Nevertheless, the delayed impact of supply-chain disruptions and lower Chinese demand on the rest of the world will continue to be felt profoundly for some time, particularly in the rest of Asia and the eurozone.
Moreover the rapid spread of the virus outside China has prompted sharp declines in travel and tourism, and the cancellation of business and leisure events worldwide as ‘social distancing’ takes hold. And some other large advanced countries – most notably Italy and Spain (and more recently in France, though after our forecast numbers were finalized) have engaged in aggressive official lockdown responses similar to those seen in China. These countries are likely to see very sizeable outright declines in GDP in the coming months.
The interruptions to economic activity seen in China – and now in Italy – are on a scale and speed rarely seen other than during periods of military conflict, natural disasters or financial crises. While there is huge uncertainty, quarterly declines in GDP of 3% to 5% (not annualised) in a full lockdown scenario look feasible. The risk is that we shortly see these abrupt interruptions happening simultaneously across all major economies as the global pandemic spreads.
Our baseline global economic forecasts have been aggressively lowered. Even though we expect a recovery in China from 2Q20, Chinese growth is expected to fall just 3.7% for the year as a whole, down from 6.1% in 2019. We forecast Italian GDP to fall by 2% this year and Spanish GDP by almost 1%.
Our baseline forecasts do not yet assume that full-scale lockdowns take place in across all the major European countries or the US (forecasts were finalised on 16 March). But even on this basis we now expect eurozone growth to be minus 0.4% this year. The baseline forecast for US growth is 1% in 2020 compared with a pre-virus outlook of 2% and GDP is expected to fall by 0.5% (or 2% annualised) in 2Q20.
This reflects the likelihood that travel, tourism, and business and leisure events will be disrupted for months, the collapse in the equity market, lower business and consumer confidence, and other disruptions to US economic activity that are emerging as authorities seek to contain the virus. We expect global growth to fall to 1.3% in 2020 from 2.7% in 2019, which would be weaker than global downturns in the early 1990s and in 2001.
The high risk of escalating lockdown responses across the major economies means that the chances of a weaker outcome are very substantial. A downside variant to our baseline forecast shows global GDP falling this year – an extremely rare occurrence in the post-war period – with GDP in Europe down by over 1.5%, US GDP down by nearly 1% and Chinese growth slipping to just over 2%.
Our oil price forecast has been lowered to USD41/bbl (Brent) for 2020 (annual average) from USD62.5/bbl in the December GEO. With the collapse of ‘OPEC+’ co-operation boosting prospects for OPEC supply, we now expect oil prices to average USD48/bbl in 2021 compared to our previous forecast of USD60/bbl.
Emergency macro policy responses are being announced on a massive scale, following a similar playbook to the global financial crisis. These include aggressive interest rate cuts, huge injections of central bank liquidity, macro-prudential easing and the creation of credit support facilities. Large-scale fiscal easing packages and the unveiling of hundred billion dollar-scale sovereign credit-guarantee schemes are also being used to help the private sector withstand shocks from measures necessary to contain the health crisis.
“Rapid and large-scale macro policy responses are all about damage limitation in the near-term, but policy easing should help GDP normalize and recover quickly in the second half of the year on the assumption that the health crisis subsides,” said Coulton. “However the uncertainties here are huge and we are really only at the beginning of the process of trying to understand the full impact of the crisis on the world economy”.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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