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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing challenging moments, markets have been violently disrupted and it will become even more visible later on that governments around the world will experience major shifts in their respective political and economic power.
As we have already witnessed, Brent prices are experiencing their lowest levels in 17 years, closing at $27.2 per barrel last Friday, whereas West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) closed at $23 per barrel. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the price of Brent, which is the international benchmark, “could dip as low as $20 per barrel and test operational stress levels”.
A week ago, Bank of America warned that the US is close to a new major recession due to the worldwide spread of the Covid-19. Simultaneously, oil producing countries keep on increasing their production at record levels amidst a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, after OPEC+ (OPEC and Russia) failed to come to a consensus over additional production cuts. Official selling prices lowered by as much as 20% have been also used as “weapons” in this price war.
At the moment, global demand for oil hovers around 100 million barrels per day. Yet, as consumption is gradually decreasing due to the tremendous economic shake of the COVID-19 and the subsequent containment measures, demand could possibly plunge an additional 20% according to some first estimations. The final outcome of this crisis still remains unknown; however, certain analysts reassure that some more optimistic scenarios are possible to play out. According to Andreas de Vries, advisor at Saudi Aramco, the successful containment policies against the Covid-19 pandemic and the implementation of stimulus packages could stem the secondary and tertiary effects on the economy.
The oil market status quo calls for an a pragmatic resolution aiming to terminate the price war. Nevertheless, a termination of the price war will not be able to push prices back to $60 plus per barrel, with levels around $40 seeming more realistic if major producers come to an agreement. As de Vries highlights, even in the best-case scenario, the average crude price will still remain considerably below what most producing countries need in order to successfully balance their respective budgets. Indeed, the extent of the virus containment measures that are currently being implemented will affect to a massive degree a number of sectors that are heavyweights for the economies of many of the producing nations, like tourism for example.
At the same time there is a growing number of voices that warns for a series of major economic consequences, with the worst-case scenario being a global economy devastated by a wave of continuous bankruptcies. We are seeing significant economic stimulus announced around the world, with the U.S. expected to reach soon a deal on a $2 trillion coronavirus aid, but the effectiveness of the implementation of these packages remains uncertain at this stage. A failure of these stimulus measures to support vital sectors of the economies around the world will lead to a prolonged crisis that could prove worse than the big downturn of 2008, but for now let’s remain reservedly optimistic and hope it doesn’t come to that.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 March 20
SOLID BACKING FOR LNG AS A MARINE FUEL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
When it comes to choosing the best fuel on the near horizon to help the international shipping industry shrink its carbon intensity by 2050, DNV GL ...
Friday, 06 March 20
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AGAIN THIS MONTH
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
PANAMAX: SHIP-OWNERS HAVE MOSTLY BEEN GETTING HIGHER RATES THAN THE LAST DONE - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There is still limited amount of positive news around, with the effects of Corona virus hurting world economy. However, overall average in ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
COAL IMPORTS DOWN IN MAJOR ASIAN MARKETS, AND CORONAVIRUS NOT THE DRIVING FORCE - CLYDE RUSSELL
Asia’s seaborne coal markets stumbled in February and it appears the coronavirus outbreak in China may dodge most of the blame, with the weak ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
SEABORNE COAL'S STRUGGLES IN ASIA ARE MORE THAN JUST CHINA CORONAVIRUS - REUTERS
Asia’s seaborne coal markets stumbled in February and it appears the coronavirus outbreak in China may dodge most of the blame, with the weak ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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