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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing challenging moments, markets have been violently disrupted and it will become even more visible later on that governments around the world will experience major shifts in their respective political and economic power.
As we have already witnessed, Brent prices are experiencing their lowest levels in 17 years, closing at $27.2 per barrel last Friday, whereas West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) closed at $23 per barrel. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the price of Brent, which is the international benchmark, “could dip as low as $20 per barrel and test operational stress levels”.
A week ago, Bank of America warned that the US is close to a new major recession due to the worldwide spread of the Covid-19. Simultaneously, oil producing countries keep on increasing their production at record levels amidst a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, after OPEC+ (OPEC and Russia) failed to come to a consensus over additional production cuts. Official selling prices lowered by as much as 20% have been also used as “weapons” in this price war.
At the moment, global demand for oil hovers around 100 million barrels per day. Yet, as consumption is gradually decreasing due to the tremendous economic shake of the COVID-19 and the subsequent containment measures, demand could possibly plunge an additional 20% according to some first estimations. The final outcome of this crisis still remains unknown; however, certain analysts reassure that some more optimistic scenarios are possible to play out. According to Andreas de Vries, advisor at Saudi Aramco, the successful containment policies against the Covid-19 pandemic and the implementation of stimulus packages could stem the secondary and tertiary effects on the economy.
The oil market status quo calls for an a pragmatic resolution aiming to terminate the price war. Nevertheless, a termination of the price war will not be able to push prices back to $60 plus per barrel, with levels around $40 seeming more realistic if major producers come to an agreement. As de Vries highlights, even in the best-case scenario, the average crude price will still remain considerably below what most producing countries need in order to successfully balance their respective budgets. Indeed, the extent of the virus containment measures that are currently being implemented will affect to a massive degree a number of sectors that are heavyweights for the economies of many of the producing nations, like tourism for example.
At the same time there is a growing number of voices that warns for a series of major economic consequences, with the worst-case scenario being a global economy devastated by a wave of continuous bankruptcies. We are seeing significant economic stimulus announced around the world, with the U.S. expected to reach soon a deal on a $2 trillion coronavirus aid, but the effectiveness of the implementation of these packages remains uncertain at this stage. A failure of these stimulus measures to support vital sectors of the economies around the world will lead to a prolonged crisis that could prove worse than the big downturn of 2008, but for now let’s remain reservedly optimistic and hope it doesn’t come to that.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 11 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 4th of September the Baltic Dry Index marked its highest level for 2019, reaching 2,518 points, while the rest of the dry indices also recor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS
It might be already overstated, but it seems to be important to point out once again how peculiar the current circumstances are.
Before the st ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
EIA FORECASTS U.S ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR DEMAND FOR COAL WILL FALL BY 81 MMST (15%) IN 2020
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019. According to EIA's Shor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: DEMAND DOWNGRADES FOR BULK COMMODITIES - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus outbreak is a rapidly evolving news story – and a real wildcard for bulks demand. Our global experts are monitoring the impac ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE ENSURES ENERGY SUPPLY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has seen more than 500 coal mines resume production in February, which ensured energy supply amid the ou ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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