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Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of coronavirus (COVID-19). In its recent report, the IEA estimates global oil demand at 99.9 mbpd in 2020, which is around 90,000 bpd lower than in 2019 and a sharp downgrade from the agency’s forecast in February, which predicted global oil demand will grow 825,000 bpd in 2020.
The market expected OPEC+ to cut supply as the COVID-19 epidemic has spread from China to Europe, the Americas and Middle East. However, the negotiations failed due to strong resistance from Russia, which is of the view that the policy of capping production by OPEC+ producers to support the oil price is facilitating the development of US shale oil, with Russia losing its market share to increasing exports from the US.
After the failure of production cut talks in Vienna, Saudi Arabia started a price war by slashing the official selling prices for crude for key buyers in the international market and hinted at raising crude oil production to full capacity of 12.3 mbpd from April 2020. The ‘shock and awe’ tactics of Saudi Arabia could be a move to impose maximum pain in the quickest possible way to Russia and other producers, in an effort to renegotiate the proposed production cut and then quickly reverse the production surge and thereafter implement the production cut if a deal is reached.
However, the recent move by Saudi Arabia could lead to:
a) Renegotiation on a production cut between OPEC and Russia
b) Prolonged price war between OPEC, Russia and US producers
If there are fresh negotiations to implement a production cut by OPEC+ producers to accommodate the effect of declining oil demand, crude oil prices are expected to normalise.
But if there is a prolonged price war between Saudi Arabia, Russia and US shale oil producers, lower crude oil prices will lead to some improvement in global oil demand and refinery runs. At the same time, onshore stocking activity will also increase, especially in countries such as China as they build their Strategic Petroleum Reserve. A global supply glut is also likely to lead to an increase in floating storage especially among oil producers.
At the same time, sustained weakness in oil prices will eventually hurt US shale oil producers because of their relatively higher cost of production. In such circumstances, the market share of Middle Eastern crude will increase at the expense of US crude.
Meanwhile, tanker rates surged due to a sudden increase in VLCC chartering from Bahri, Saudi Arabia’s national shipping arm. Bahri fixed at least 18 VLCCs since the Kingdom aims to pump more crude into the market as its price war with Russia escalates. The VLCC earnings on Middle East–China (TD3C) route skyrocketed to $166,000pd on 11 March from $30,300pd on 06 March.
If Saudi Arabia manages to strike a deal with Russia to cut production in the short term, tanker rates will plummet to the pre-price war levels because of the ongoing weakness in crude oil trade on account of the spread of COVID-19 globally. On the other hand, if there is a prolonged price war, tonnage demand will rise initially with the increase in oil demand and stocking activity, which in turn will keep freight rates above pre-price war levels.
However, once sustained weakness in oil prices starts hurting US crude production, Middle Eastern crude will start displacing US crude in Asia. This in turn will squeeze tonne-mile demand for tankers as the distance between the US to Asia is almost double the distance between the Middle East to Asia. Thus we estimate that every barrel per day of annual decline in US exports to Asia at the expense of the Middle East will lead to about a 2.5% decline in overall tonne-mile demand for tankers. Freight rates in such a situation will plunge below the pre-price war levels.
Source: Drewry
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Wednesday, 26 February 20
AS ALL OF THE GLOBAL COAL GIANTS EXIT SOUTH AFRICA, ESKOM TO DEPEND ON TWO MINERS FOR 70% OF ITS SUPPLY - BUSINESS INSIDER
While some of its politicians continue to imagine that coal has a future in South Africa, two key developments from the real world show that securi ...
Tuesday, 25 February 20
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR REGISTERED A NET PROFIT OF US$20 MILLION FOR FY 2019
PT Delta Dunia Makmur, one of the largest coal mining company in Indonesia, has recorded an US$882 million revenue for FY 2019, 1% lower compared t ...
Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quart ...
Monday, 24 February 20
COULD SOME VLSFO FUELS BE BANNED? - GIBSON
The run up to the implementation of the new IMO rules on marine fuels from1st January 2020 had owners and charterers analysing the vari ...
Monday, 24 February 20
CHINA SAYS MAJOR COAL FIRMS RESTORE 95% OF PRODUCTION CAPACITY - REUTERS
China’s coal companies controlled by the central government have resumed operations and are back at more than 95% of their capacity, an offic ...
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Showing 1106 to 1110 news of total 6871 |
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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