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Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of coronavirus (COVID-19). In its recent report, the IEA estimates global oil demand at 99.9 mbpd in 2020, which is around 90,000 bpd lower than in 2019 and a sharp downgrade from the agency’s forecast in February, which predicted global oil demand will grow 825,000 bpd in 2020.
The market expected OPEC+ to cut supply as the COVID-19 epidemic has spread from China to Europe, the Americas and Middle East. However, the negotiations failed due to strong resistance from Russia, which is of the view that the policy of capping production by OPEC+ producers to support the oil price is facilitating the development of US shale oil, with Russia losing its market share to increasing exports from the US.
After the failure of production cut talks in Vienna, Saudi Arabia started a price war by slashing the official selling prices for crude for key buyers in the international market and hinted at raising crude oil production to full capacity of 12.3 mbpd from April 2020. The ‘shock and awe’ tactics of Saudi Arabia could be a move to impose maximum pain in the quickest possible way to Russia and other producers, in an effort to renegotiate the proposed production cut and then quickly reverse the production surge and thereafter implement the production cut if a deal is reached.
However, the recent move by Saudi Arabia could lead to:
a) Renegotiation on a production cut between OPEC and Russia
b) Prolonged price war between OPEC, Russia and US producers
If there are fresh negotiations to implement a production cut by OPEC+ producers to accommodate the effect of declining oil demand, crude oil prices are expected to normalise.
But if there is a prolonged price war between Saudi Arabia, Russia and US shale oil producers, lower crude oil prices will lead to some improvement in global oil demand and refinery runs. At the same time, onshore stocking activity will also increase, especially in countries such as China as they build their Strategic Petroleum Reserve. A global supply glut is also likely to lead to an increase in floating storage especially among oil producers.
At the same time, sustained weakness in oil prices will eventually hurt US shale oil producers because of their relatively higher cost of production. In such circumstances, the market share of Middle Eastern crude will increase at the expense of US crude.
Meanwhile, tanker rates surged due to a sudden increase in VLCC chartering from Bahri, Saudi Arabia’s national shipping arm. Bahri fixed at least 18 VLCCs since the Kingdom aims to pump more crude into the market as its price war with Russia escalates. The VLCC earnings on Middle East–China (TD3C) route skyrocketed to $166,000pd on 11 March from $30,300pd on 06 March.
If Saudi Arabia manages to strike a deal with Russia to cut production in the short term, tanker rates will plummet to the pre-price war levels because of the ongoing weakness in crude oil trade on account of the spread of COVID-19 globally. On the other hand, if there is a prolonged price war, tonnage demand will rise initially with the increase in oil demand and stocking activity, which in turn will keep freight rates above pre-price war levels.
However, once sustained weakness in oil prices starts hurting US crude production, Middle Eastern crude will start displacing US crude in Asia. This in turn will squeeze tonne-mile demand for tankers as the distance between the US to Asia is almost double the distance between the Middle East to Asia. Thus we estimate that every barrel per day of annual decline in US exports to Asia at the expense of the Middle East will lead to about a 2.5% decline in overall tonne-mile demand for tankers. Freight rates in such a situation will plunge below the pre-price war levels.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 03 March 20
COAL'S SHARE OF CHINA ENERGY MIX FALLS IN 2019 BUT CONSUMPTION STILL RISING - REUTERS
Coal accounted for 57.7% of China’s primary energy consumption in 2019, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday, down 1.5 percentage ...
Monday, 02 March 20
SHIPOWNERS AND OPERATORS COULD FACE DETENTION OF SHIPS FROM 1ST MARCH UNDER IMO RULE - ICS
Port state control authorities will begin to enforce the IMO’s Sulphur 2020 from 1st March, making it an offense for ships to carry fuel that ...
Saturday, 29 February 20
SUPRAMAX SENTIMENT WAS UP IN A FEW KEY AREAS OVER THE LAST WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market woes related to Coronavirus have now spread through the wider global markets like wildfire. The wider supply and d ...
Thursday, 27 February 20
FOREIGN COMPANIES LIKELY TO SKIP COMMERCIAL COAL BLOCK AUCTIONS - ECONOMIC TIMES
The Centre is in the process of inviting global players for commercial mining, following 100% foreign direct investment in the sector. However, giv ...
Wednesday, 26 February 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Coming from one of its busiest periods historically, with a list of scrubber and BWMS retrofits on a waiting list, the ship repair sector is witnes ...
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Showing 1101 to 1105 news of total 6871 |
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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