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Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of coronavirus (COVID-19). In its recent report, the IEA estimates global oil demand at 99.9 mbpd in 2020, which is around 90,000 bpd lower than in 2019 and a sharp downgrade from the agency’s forecast in February, which predicted global oil demand will grow 825,000 bpd in 2020.
The market expected OPEC+ to cut supply as the COVID-19 epidemic has spread from China to Europe, the Americas and Middle East. However, the negotiations failed due to strong resistance from Russia, which is of the view that the policy of capping production by OPEC+ producers to support the oil price is facilitating the development of US shale oil, with Russia losing its market share to increasing exports from the US.
After the failure of production cut talks in Vienna, Saudi Arabia started a price war by slashing the official selling prices for crude for key buyers in the international market and hinted at raising crude oil production to full capacity of 12.3 mbpd from April 2020. The ‘shock and awe’ tactics of Saudi Arabia could be a move to impose maximum pain in the quickest possible way to Russia and other producers, in an effort to renegotiate the proposed production cut and then quickly reverse the production surge and thereafter implement the production cut if a deal is reached.
However, the recent move by Saudi Arabia could lead to:
a) Renegotiation on a production cut between OPEC and Russia
b) Prolonged price war between OPEC, Russia and US producers
If there are fresh negotiations to implement a production cut by OPEC+ producers to accommodate the effect of declining oil demand, crude oil prices are expected to normalise.
But if there is a prolonged price war between Saudi Arabia, Russia and US shale oil producers, lower crude oil prices will lead to some improvement in global oil demand and refinery runs. At the same time, onshore stocking activity will also increase, especially in countries such as China as they build their Strategic Petroleum Reserve. A global supply glut is also likely to lead to an increase in floating storage especially among oil producers.
At the same time, sustained weakness in oil prices will eventually hurt US shale oil producers because of their relatively higher cost of production. In such circumstances, the market share of Middle Eastern crude will increase at the expense of US crude.
Meanwhile, tanker rates surged due to a sudden increase in VLCC chartering from Bahri, Saudi Arabia’s national shipping arm. Bahri fixed at least 18 VLCCs since the Kingdom aims to pump more crude into the market as its price war with Russia escalates. The VLCC earnings on Middle East–China (TD3C) route skyrocketed to $166,000pd on 11 March from $30,300pd on 06 March.
If Saudi Arabia manages to strike a deal with Russia to cut production in the short term, tanker rates will plummet to the pre-price war levels because of the ongoing weakness in crude oil trade on account of the spread of COVID-19 globally. On the other hand, if there is a prolonged price war, tonnage demand will rise initially with the increase in oil demand and stocking activity, which in turn will keep freight rates above pre-price war levels.
However, once sustained weakness in oil prices starts hurting US crude production, Middle Eastern crude will start displacing US crude in Asia. This in turn will squeeze tonne-mile demand for tankers as the distance between the US to Asia is almost double the distance between the Middle East to Asia. Thus we estimate that every barrel per day of annual decline in US exports to Asia at the expense of the Middle East will lead to about a 2.5% decline in overall tonne-mile demand for tankers. Freight rates in such a situation will plunge below the pre-price war levels.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 31 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.43 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.17 points Monday, down 0.43 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
COAL POWER REMAINS IN GLOBAL DECLINE, DESPITE CHINESE SURGE - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
The impact of coronavirus has prompted a surge in coal-fired power plant construction permits in China, with the Chinese government issuing more pe ...
Monday, 30 March 20
CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR SHIPS AND CREW - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Countries around the world are strengthening their border control measures in order to prevent the further spread of COVI ...
Monday, 30 March 20
LAY-UP AND RE-ACTIVATION REVISITED - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the maritime industry in previously unthinkable ways. Ports around the world are denyi ...
Monday, 30 March 20
PANAMAX: INDONESIA LACKED VOLUME, PARTLY DUE TO FORCE MAJEURE IN INDIAN PORTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As Covid-19 continued to ratchet up tensions across the globe, the Cape market dealt with the change to remote working. Most regions o ...
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Showing 1036 to 1040 news of total 6871 |
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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