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Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of coronavirus (COVID-19). In its recent report, the IEA estimates global oil demand at 99.9 mbpd in 2020, which is around 90,000 bpd lower than in 2019 and a sharp downgrade from the agency’s forecast in February, which predicted global oil demand will grow 825,000 bpd in 2020.
The market expected OPEC+ to cut supply as the COVID-19 epidemic has spread from China to Europe, the Americas and Middle East. However, the negotiations failed due to strong resistance from Russia, which is of the view that the policy of capping production by OPEC+ producers to support the oil price is facilitating the development of US shale oil, with Russia losing its market share to increasing exports from the US.
After the failure of production cut talks in Vienna, Saudi Arabia started a price war by slashing the official selling prices for crude for key buyers in the international market and hinted at raising crude oil production to full capacity of 12.3 mbpd from April 2020. The ‘shock and awe’ tactics of Saudi Arabia could be a move to impose maximum pain in the quickest possible way to Russia and other producers, in an effort to renegotiate the proposed production cut and then quickly reverse the production surge and thereafter implement the production cut if a deal is reached.
However, the recent move by Saudi Arabia could lead to:
a) Renegotiation on a production cut between OPEC and Russia
b) Prolonged price war between OPEC, Russia and US producers
If there are fresh negotiations to implement a production cut by OPEC+ producers to accommodate the effect of declining oil demand, crude oil prices are expected to normalise.
But if there is a prolonged price war between Saudi Arabia, Russia and US shale oil producers, lower crude oil prices will lead to some improvement in global oil demand and refinery runs. At the same time, onshore stocking activity will also increase, especially in countries such as China as they build their Strategic Petroleum Reserve. A global supply glut is also likely to lead to an increase in floating storage especially among oil producers.
At the same time, sustained weakness in oil prices will eventually hurt US shale oil producers because of their relatively higher cost of production. In such circumstances, the market share of Middle Eastern crude will increase at the expense of US crude.
Meanwhile, tanker rates surged due to a sudden increase in VLCC chartering from Bahri, Saudi Arabia’s national shipping arm. Bahri fixed at least 18 VLCCs since the Kingdom aims to pump more crude into the market as its price war with Russia escalates. The VLCC earnings on Middle East–China (TD3C) route skyrocketed to $166,000pd on 11 March from $30,300pd on 06 March.
If Saudi Arabia manages to strike a deal with Russia to cut production in the short term, tanker rates will plummet to the pre-price war levels because of the ongoing weakness in crude oil trade on account of the spread of COVID-19 globally. On the other hand, if there is a prolonged price war, tonnage demand will rise initially with the increase in oil demand and stocking activity, which in turn will keep freight rates above pre-price war levels.
However, once sustained weakness in oil prices starts hurting US crude production, Middle Eastern crude will start displacing US crude in Asia. This in turn will squeeze tonne-mile demand for tankers as the distance between the US to Asia is almost double the distance between the Middle East to Asia. Thus we estimate that every barrel per day of annual decline in US exports to Asia at the expense of the Middle East will lead to about a 2.5% decline in overall tonne-mile demand for tankers. Freight rates in such a situation will plunge below the pre-price war levels.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 07 April 20
IS CHINA EMBARKING ON A MAJOR EXPANSION OF COAL-FIRED POWER GENERATION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As energy companies worldwide grapple with the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, long-term planning continues. Ahead of the release of t ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
COAL INDIA'S DISPATCHES DROP, OUTPUT INCREASES - THE HINDU
India’s largest coal producer Coal India Ltd. (CIL) has seen a 10% fall in dispatches in March 2020 due to a sharp fall in demand from the po ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
CORONAVIRUS AND LOCKDOWNS DRAG DOWN THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of the Indonesian ther ...
Monday, 06 April 20
A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY TAIWAN, AT $3,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this me ...
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Showing 1026 to 1030 news of total 6871 |
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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