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Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of coronavirus (COVID-19). In its recent report, the IEA estimates global oil demand at 99.9 mbpd in 2020, which is around 90,000 bpd lower than in 2019 and a sharp downgrade from the agency’s forecast in February, which predicted global oil demand will grow 825,000 bpd in 2020.
The market expected OPEC+ to cut supply as the COVID-19 epidemic has spread from China to Europe, the Americas and Middle East. However, the negotiations failed due to strong resistance from Russia, which is of the view that the policy of capping production by OPEC+ producers to support the oil price is facilitating the development of US shale oil, with Russia losing its market share to increasing exports from the US.
After the failure of production cut talks in Vienna, Saudi Arabia started a price war by slashing the official selling prices for crude for key buyers in the international market and hinted at raising crude oil production to full capacity of 12.3 mbpd from April 2020. The ‘shock and awe’ tactics of Saudi Arabia could be a move to impose maximum pain in the quickest possible way to Russia and other producers, in an effort to renegotiate the proposed production cut and then quickly reverse the production surge and thereafter implement the production cut if a deal is reached.
However, the recent move by Saudi Arabia could lead to:
a) Renegotiation on a production cut between OPEC and Russia
b) Prolonged price war between OPEC, Russia and US producers
If there are fresh negotiations to implement a production cut by OPEC+ producers to accommodate the effect of declining oil demand, crude oil prices are expected to normalise.
But if there is a prolonged price war between Saudi Arabia, Russia and US shale oil producers, lower crude oil prices will lead to some improvement in global oil demand and refinery runs. At the same time, onshore stocking activity will also increase, especially in countries such as China as they build their Strategic Petroleum Reserve. A global supply glut is also likely to lead to an increase in floating storage especially among oil producers.
At the same time, sustained weakness in oil prices will eventually hurt US shale oil producers because of their relatively higher cost of production. In such circumstances, the market share of Middle Eastern crude will increase at the expense of US crude.
Meanwhile, tanker rates surged due to a sudden increase in VLCC chartering from Bahri, Saudi Arabia’s national shipping arm. Bahri fixed at least 18 VLCCs since the Kingdom aims to pump more crude into the market as its price war with Russia escalates. The VLCC earnings on Middle East–China (TD3C) route skyrocketed to $166,000pd on 11 March from $30,300pd on 06 March.
If Saudi Arabia manages to strike a deal with Russia to cut production in the short term, tanker rates will plummet to the pre-price war levels because of the ongoing weakness in crude oil trade on account of the spread of COVID-19 globally. On the other hand, if there is a prolonged price war, tonnage demand will rise initially with the increase in oil demand and stocking activity, which in turn will keep freight rates above pre-price war levels.
However, once sustained weakness in oil prices starts hurting US crude production, Middle Eastern crude will start displacing US crude in Asia. This in turn will squeeze tonne-mile demand for tankers as the distance between the US to Asia is almost double the distance between the Middle East to Asia. Thus we estimate that every barrel per day of annual decline in US exports to Asia at the expense of the Middle East will lead to about a 2.5% decline in overall tonne-mile demand for tankers. Freight rates in such a situation will plunge below the pre-price war levels.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 07 April 20
IS CHINA EMBARKING ON A MAJOR EXPANSION OF COAL-FIRED POWER GENERATION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As energy companies worldwide grapple with the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, long-term planning continues. Ahead of the release of t ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
COAL INDIA'S DISPATCHES DROP, OUTPUT INCREASES - THE HINDU
India’s largest coal producer Coal India Ltd. (CIL) has seen a 10% fall in dispatches in March 2020 due to a sharp fall in demand from the po ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
CORONAVIRUS AND LOCKDOWNS DRAG DOWN THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of the Indonesian ther ...
Monday, 06 April 20
A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY TAIWAN, AT $3,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this me ...
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Showing 1026 to 1030 news of total 6871 |
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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