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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growth outlook at risk. The full scale and impact of the outbreak remain to be seen, but it is certainly an unwelcome new wildcard for bulks demand. So, what is the potential impact on steel, iron ore, metallurgical and thermal coal?
This article includes key points from the insight ‘Coronavirus: assessing the impacts on bulks’. Fill in the form on this page for a complimentary copy of the full insight.
What is already clear is that the coronavirus outbreak threatens an otherwise positive near-term outlook. A solid end to the year meant China’s economy secured annual growth of 6.1% in 2019. Metals demand was also showing signs of improvement – mainly on the back of accelerated Industrial Production (IP) and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators in November and December, an uptick of auto production in December, and a recovery in property completions across Q4.
China’s Phase One trade deal with the US also fuelled expectations that its macroeconomy would remain robust in H1 2020. The coronavirus outbreak has put this outlook at risk.
Steel demand will be affected
Consumer activity in China has been hit by the extended holiday period, transport bans and quarantines. The restrictions on the workforce have also delayed the restart of some construction projects – and as construction accounts for two-thirds of Chinese steel demand the implications are stark. Crude steel and hot metal demand – previously set to grow this year – are now facing a year-on-year decline.
China has felt the impact of a virus outbreak before. In 2003, SARS slowed construction activities, delayed the springtime peak for steel demand and put pressure on rebar prices.
But what can we really learn from the experience of the SARS epidemic? And how could steel be affected this time around? Fill in the form to read the full complimentary insight.
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting bulks?
Metallurgical coal
The direct impact on metallurgical coal imports has been relatively muted. Production at coastal mills is strong and we don’t expect the outbreak to drive a significant change in import trends – the high availability of stocks from the customs clearance delays in 2019 currently has a bigger influence.
In the very near term, the extended holiday period has meant that the impact on domestic metallurgical coal supply is greater than the impact on demand. Resultant coal shortages are pushing prices higher.
However, an inevitable decline in steel demand will affect steel prices and margins. Lower steel margins will ultimately impact on metallurgical coal markets. We expect metallurgical coal demand between March and May to be lower than it would have been as a result.
Iron ore
We expect a relatively low impact on iron ore demand. Chinese blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production should remain resilient, with most large integrated operations continuing to operate, if at a reduced rate. Iron ore prices have taken a hit, driven by uncertainty and a lack of volume during the holiday period.
Read the full insight for more on our price forecast, and how slower end-use demand from construction could affect producers.
Thermal coal
Thermal coal demand and domestic production will both be dented by weakening economic and industrial activity. Domestic supply is returning quickly, but demand is slower to recover – potentially leading to an oversupply situation in March. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens.
The effect on international prices is likely to be volatile in the very short-term as the outbreak remains an emerging news story. Throughout the year though, the downside risk for prices is muted, given how significantly they fell in 2019 and that many producers are already in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this would likely be a temporary drop until China’s imports picked up again towards the end of the year.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 30 January 20
CAPE: WITH CHINESE NEW YEAR TAKING PLACE, THE RATES ARE REACHING FURTHER DISAPPOINTING LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Cape
With Chinese New Year taking place, the rates are reaching further disappointing levels. Present TC average is below USD 4,500, off 24% fr ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
INDONESIA REMAINS AT THE TOP SPOT IN 2019 AS THE LARGEST SUPPLIER OF COAL TO INDIA WITH 91.3 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
Despite repeated promises from India’s government to reduce the country’s coal imports and increase domestic self-reliance, volumes jus ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last week Libya’s oil production operations were disrupted as it was reported that local Libyan tribes interrupted output at the the El Feel ...
Tuesday, 28 January 20
INDONESIA - UNCERTAINTY OVER AVAILABILITY OF LSFO - THE STANDARD CLUB
The club has received reports that low sulphur fuel is not currently readily available in all Indonesian ports and that there are local shortages.
...
Sunday, 26 January 20
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN BASIN SAW A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SAMARINDA TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $4,750 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market endured heavy losses throughout the past week, with the Capesize 5TC dropping from $8,352 to $4,772. In the lead up to Chin ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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