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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growth outlook at risk. The full scale and impact of the outbreak remain to be seen, but it is certainly an unwelcome new wildcard for bulks demand. So, what is the potential impact on steel, iron ore, metallurgical and thermal coal?
This article includes key points from the insight ‘Coronavirus: assessing the impacts on bulks’. Fill in the form on this page for a complimentary copy of the full insight.
What is already clear is that the coronavirus outbreak threatens an otherwise positive near-term outlook. A solid end to the year meant China’s economy secured annual growth of 6.1% in 2019. Metals demand was also showing signs of improvement – mainly on the back of accelerated Industrial Production (IP) and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators in November and December, an uptick of auto production in December, and a recovery in property completions across Q4.
China’s Phase One trade deal with the US also fuelled expectations that its macroeconomy would remain robust in H1 2020. The coronavirus outbreak has put this outlook at risk.
Steel demand will be affected
Consumer activity in China has been hit by the extended holiday period, transport bans and quarantines. The restrictions on the workforce have also delayed the restart of some construction projects – and as construction accounts for two-thirds of Chinese steel demand the implications are stark. Crude steel and hot metal demand – previously set to grow this year – are now facing a year-on-year decline.
China has felt the impact of a virus outbreak before. In 2003, SARS slowed construction activities, delayed the springtime peak for steel demand and put pressure on rebar prices.
But what can we really learn from the experience of the SARS epidemic? And how could steel be affected this time around? Fill in the form to read the full complimentary insight.
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting bulks?
Metallurgical coal
The direct impact on metallurgical coal imports has been relatively muted. Production at coastal mills is strong and we don’t expect the outbreak to drive a significant change in import trends – the high availability of stocks from the customs clearance delays in 2019 currently has a bigger influence.
In the very near term, the extended holiday period has meant that the impact on domestic metallurgical coal supply is greater than the impact on demand. Resultant coal shortages are pushing prices higher.
However, an inevitable decline in steel demand will affect steel prices and margins. Lower steel margins will ultimately impact on metallurgical coal markets. We expect metallurgical coal demand between March and May to be lower than it would have been as a result.
Iron ore
We expect a relatively low impact on iron ore demand. Chinese blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production should remain resilient, with most large integrated operations continuing to operate, if at a reduced rate. Iron ore prices have taken a hit, driven by uncertainty and a lack of volume during the holiday period.
Read the full insight for more on our price forecast, and how slower end-use demand from construction could affect producers.
Thermal coal
Thermal coal demand and domestic production will both be dented by weakening economic and industrial activity. Domestic supply is returning quickly, but demand is slower to recover – potentially leading to an oversupply situation in March. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens.
The effect on international prices is likely to be volatile in the very short-term as the outbreak remains an emerging news story. Throughout the year though, the downside risk for prices is muted, given how significantly they fell in 2019 and that many producers are already in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this would likely be a temporary drop until China’s imports picked up again towards the end of the year.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 03 February 20
KOWEPO INVITING BIDS FOR 2.46 MILLION TONS OF MIN.5700 AND MIN.5600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for total 2,460,000 tons of (Sub) Bitum ...
Sunday, 02 February 20
NOVEL CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN CHINA - STANDARD CLUB
Members will be aware of the recent novel coronavirus outbreak in China, which has now been declared a global emergency by the World Health Organis ...
Sunday, 02 February 20
SUPRAMAX: A 52,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SOUTH KALIMANTAN TRIP TO INDIA, AT $6,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The week proved conspicuous for all the wrong reasons. This was the week when the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) turned negative, closing ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
50 MILLION PEOPLE QUARANTINED IN CHINA TO CONTAIN SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS - HOW DOES IT AFFECT SHIPPING? - BIMCO
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, declared a global health emergency by the WHO, has caused massive uncertainty across the global markets with ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
THERMAL COAL MARKETS: 5 TRENDS TO WATCH OUT FOR IN 2020 - MINING REVIEW
The seaborne thermal coal market entered the year challenged by low priced LNG in the Atlantic and rapidly increasing supply in the Pacific.
&n ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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