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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growth outlook at risk. The full scale and impact of the outbreak remain to be seen, but it is certainly an unwelcome new wildcard for bulks demand. So, what is the potential impact on steel, iron ore, metallurgical and thermal coal?
This article includes key points from the insight ‘Coronavirus: assessing the impacts on bulks’. Fill in the form on this page for a complimentary copy of the full insight.
What is already clear is that the coronavirus outbreak threatens an otherwise positive near-term outlook. A solid end to the year meant China’s economy secured annual growth of 6.1% in 2019. Metals demand was also showing signs of improvement – mainly on the back of accelerated Industrial Production (IP) and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators in November and December, an uptick of auto production in December, and a recovery in property completions across Q4.
China’s Phase One trade deal with the US also fuelled expectations that its macroeconomy would remain robust in H1 2020. The coronavirus outbreak has put this outlook at risk.
Steel demand will be affected
Consumer activity in China has been hit by the extended holiday period, transport bans and quarantines. The restrictions on the workforce have also delayed the restart of some construction projects – and as construction accounts for two-thirds of Chinese steel demand the implications are stark. Crude steel and hot metal demand – previously set to grow this year – are now facing a year-on-year decline.
China has felt the impact of a virus outbreak before. In 2003, SARS slowed construction activities, delayed the springtime peak for steel demand and put pressure on rebar prices.
But what can we really learn from the experience of the SARS epidemic? And how could steel be affected this time around? Fill in the form to read the full complimentary insight.
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting bulks?
Metallurgical coal
The direct impact on metallurgical coal imports has been relatively muted. Production at coastal mills is strong and we don’t expect the outbreak to drive a significant change in import trends – the high availability of stocks from the customs clearance delays in 2019 currently has a bigger influence.
In the very near term, the extended holiday period has meant that the impact on domestic metallurgical coal supply is greater than the impact on demand. Resultant coal shortages are pushing prices higher.
However, an inevitable decline in steel demand will affect steel prices and margins. Lower steel margins will ultimately impact on metallurgical coal markets. We expect metallurgical coal demand between March and May to be lower than it would have been as a result.
Iron ore
We expect a relatively low impact on iron ore demand. Chinese blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production should remain resilient, with most large integrated operations continuing to operate, if at a reduced rate. Iron ore prices have taken a hit, driven by uncertainty and a lack of volume during the holiday period.
Read the full insight for more on our price forecast, and how slower end-use demand from construction could affect producers.
Thermal coal
Thermal coal demand and domestic production will both be dented by weakening economic and industrial activity. Domestic supply is returning quickly, but demand is slower to recover – potentially leading to an oversupply situation in March. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens.
The effect on international prices is likely to be volatile in the very short-term as the outbreak remains an emerging news story. Throughout the year though, the downside risk for prices is muted, given how significantly they fell in 2019 and that many producers are already in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this would likely be a temporary drop until China’s imports picked up again towards the end of the year.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 07 April 20
IS CHINA EMBARKING ON A MAJOR EXPANSION OF COAL-FIRED POWER GENERATION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As energy companies worldwide grapple with the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, long-term planning continues. Ahead of the release of t ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
COAL INDIA'S DISPATCHES DROP, OUTPUT INCREASES - THE HINDU
India’s largest coal producer Coal India Ltd. (CIL) has seen a 10% fall in dispatches in March 2020 due to a sharp fall in demand from the po ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
CORONAVIRUS AND LOCKDOWNS DRAG DOWN THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of the Indonesian ther ...
Monday, 06 April 20
A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY TAIWAN, AT $3,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this me ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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