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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growth outlook at risk. The full scale and impact of the outbreak remain to be seen, but it is certainly an unwelcome new wildcard for bulks demand. So, what is the potential impact on steel, iron ore, metallurgical and thermal coal?
This article includes key points from the insight ‘Coronavirus: assessing the impacts on bulks’. Fill in the form on this page for a complimentary copy of the full insight.
What is already clear is that the coronavirus outbreak threatens an otherwise positive near-term outlook. A solid end to the year meant China’s economy secured annual growth of 6.1% in 2019. Metals demand was also showing signs of improvement – mainly on the back of accelerated Industrial Production (IP) and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators in November and December, an uptick of auto production in December, and a recovery in property completions across Q4.
China’s Phase One trade deal with the US also fuelled expectations that its macroeconomy would remain robust in H1 2020. The coronavirus outbreak has put this outlook at risk.
Steel demand will be affected
Consumer activity in China has been hit by the extended holiday period, transport bans and quarantines. The restrictions on the workforce have also delayed the restart of some construction projects – and as construction accounts for two-thirds of Chinese steel demand the implications are stark. Crude steel and hot metal demand – previously set to grow this year – are now facing a year-on-year decline.
China has felt the impact of a virus outbreak before. In 2003, SARS slowed construction activities, delayed the springtime peak for steel demand and put pressure on rebar prices.
But what can we really learn from the experience of the SARS epidemic? And how could steel be affected this time around? Fill in the form to read the full complimentary insight.
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting bulks?
Metallurgical coal
The direct impact on metallurgical coal imports has been relatively muted. Production at coastal mills is strong and we don’t expect the outbreak to drive a significant change in import trends – the high availability of stocks from the customs clearance delays in 2019 currently has a bigger influence.
In the very near term, the extended holiday period has meant that the impact on domestic metallurgical coal supply is greater than the impact on demand. Resultant coal shortages are pushing prices higher.
However, an inevitable decline in steel demand will affect steel prices and margins. Lower steel margins will ultimately impact on metallurgical coal markets. We expect metallurgical coal demand between March and May to be lower than it would have been as a result.
Iron ore
We expect a relatively low impact on iron ore demand. Chinese blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production should remain resilient, with most large integrated operations continuing to operate, if at a reduced rate. Iron ore prices have taken a hit, driven by uncertainty and a lack of volume during the holiday period.
Read the full insight for more on our price forecast, and how slower end-use demand from construction could affect producers.
Thermal coal
Thermal coal demand and domestic production will both be dented by weakening economic and industrial activity. Domestic supply is returning quickly, but demand is slower to recover – potentially leading to an oversupply situation in March. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens.
The effect on international prices is likely to be volatile in the very short-term as the outbreak remains an emerging news story. Throughout the year though, the downside risk for prices is muted, given how significantly they fell in 2019 and that many producers are already in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this would likely be a temporary drop until China’s imports picked up again towards the end of the year.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 16 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE FALLS 5 YUAN PER TONNE - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price fell by 5 yuan (about 70 U.S. cents) per tonne during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Co ...
Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in ...
Monday, 13 April 20
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY PARADIP, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $4,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Saturday, 11 April 20
FAQ: COVID-19 AND CLUB COVER - UK P&I
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has generated a significant number of enquiries and questions from Members in recent ...
Saturday, 11 April 20
KOEN POWER PLANTS INVITED BIDS FOR 1.5 -1.62 MMT OF STEAM COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 1,500,000-1,620,000 Metric Tons (M ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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