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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 16 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE FALLS 5 YUAN PER TONNE - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price fell by 5 yuan (about 70 U.S. cents) per tonne during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Co ...
Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in ...
Monday, 13 April 20
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY PARADIP, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $4,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Saturday, 11 April 20
FAQ: COVID-19 AND CLUB COVER - UK P&I
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has generated a significant number of enquiries and questions from Members in recent ...
Saturday, 11 April 20
KOEN POWER PLANTS INVITED BIDS FOR 1.5 -1.62 MMT OF STEAM COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 1,500,000-1,620,000 Metric Tons (M ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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