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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 17 April 20
PANDEMIC TO BRING ASIA'S 2020 GROWTH TO HALT FOR 1ST TIME IN 60 YEARS - IMF: REUTERS
Asia’s economic growth this year will grind to a halt for the first time in 60 years, as the coronavirus crisis takes an “unprecedented ...
Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
OPEC released its much anticipated April monthly report.
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, rec ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SAUDI ARABIA'S MAY 2020 OSPS FOR CRUDE EXPORTS BODE WELL FOR ASIAN REFINERS - WOOD MACKENZIE
On 13 April, Saudi Arabia announced the Official Selling Prices (OSPs) for its May crude oil exports. The new OSPs speak volumes about Saudi Arabia ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SEABORNE COAL PRICES UNDER PRESSURE AS DEMAND SOFTENS IN CHINA, INDIA - CLYDE RUSSELL
Worrying signs are emerging for coal exporters to the world’s biggest markets in Asia, as top buyers China and India move to favour domestic ...
Thursday, 16 April 20
THERMAL POWER SECTOR FACES BLEAK SCENARIO POST-COVID SITUATION - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The centre should take a fresh look at coal-energy value chain as the sector tops the chart on loan defaults.
Covid-19 may have serv ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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