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Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
 Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between China and the West — and China and the U.S., in particular. However, there are far-reaching effects that have not been contemplated fully beyond the intuitive assessment.
Things move slowly. China has long been known as a country with patience, which in business language translates to longer lead times in the transactional arena, sometimes exhaustive negotiations, and relationships are built over time. Many of these relationships are created in the environment of trade shows, conferences, information exchange platforms, and trade delegations. China has finely tuned this method of cross-border introductions and it is a continuous process.
Combined with this is the growth of the multinational business presence in China. Major retailers, manufacturers, pharmaceuticals, biotech, automotive and other sectors are firmly planted in China with technology and personnel. Now, with the essentially closed border with China, the rest of the world waits and watches. To the business community, this is unsettling, to say the least, because there is no accurate predictor of when a vaccine may be found or when the world threat eradicated. Even when those pronouncements are ultimately made by Beijing there is the inherent distrust of information disseminated by the Chinese government.
So what does all of this mean for cross-border business in the short and long term?
An aerial view reveals that the movement of people and technology and deal closure have simply come to a halt. When the Chinese government, or other governments, or the WHO pronounce that it is safe to travel to China again, that will not be the end of it. There has been a worldwide reaction to the scare. The tradeshow and related cancellations have occurred not only in China but throughout Asia and into Europe. Therefore, a wide swath of activities are upended across all business sectors.
The rate of new cases slowed on Wednesday. As of this writing, there have been more than 45,000 cases of Covid-19 and over 1,100 deaths. Businesses from cruise ships to luxury brands and air travel, as well as global markets like oil, have all been hit. There can be no question that it will be a slow and painful process moving back to normalcy. Professional offices remain closed indefinitely, and 90% of businesses are closed or at dramatically reduced hours. Theaters, factories and others where people congregate are closed.
We are all familiar with the recent comparisons of coronavirus with SARS, but there is no real comparison. SARS was perceived as essentially a Hong Kong-centric event and everyone wondered if that would be the death of the HK economy, coming a few years after the handover. Moreover, social media and its impact on global interaction were just launching, and China’s interaction with the world economy was in its infancy.
Transparency will be the key to short term confidence which will lead to a long-term recovery. This is despite short-term pain and embarrassment. All governments can learn a lesson from this, but Beijing has yet to learn it. It may very well be that Wuhan, as ground zero for the Coronavirus, never recovers. The headlines today paint Wuhan as a pariah city, in a wartime battle and in lockdown. The Chinese Chernobyl. These characterizations will not be easily shed. Wuhan, as the capital of Hubei province, has positioned itself as a foreign investment hub and has developed trade, manufacturing and export and development zones to highlight its growth and position within China. Companies will have to assess whether or not their investments should remain in Wuhan or be moved.
Considering China’s impact on the world economy, China will not be off limits to future investment forever. Instead, there will be wariness and unbridled caution for the foreseeable future. Businesses will seek alternatives to avoid commercial and liability issues.
In the best case, returning to normal is not a reasonable expectation in the short term. In the long term, China must take all steps necessary to demonstrate its commitment to transparency regarding all factors relating to the virus. In today’s economy, there are many alternatives for trade and investment and China must recognize that its global trade partners need regular and repeated reassurances. Additionally, China will need to inject substantial financial incentives into the economy to balance against commercial and optical risks.
In the best of circumstances, this process will take six to nine months to see the way forward to a stable and commercially feasible reintroduction of business, confidence and renewed investment. This will require unrelenting adjustments as events require. There is no single action or vaccine that will erase the impact of the coronavirus. A group of actions are needed to restore the zeal and excitement for consumer, business, investment and tourism.
Anything less will create a lingering atmosphere of caution and distrust.
Source: CNBC
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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
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Tuesday, 14 January 20
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Saturday, 11 January 20
ARE YOU 95% CONFIDENT THAT YOUR VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL IS ON SPEC AND MARPOL COMPLIANT? - GARD
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Saturday, 11 January 20
NEW PRICING COULD SPELL TROUBLE FOR CHINA'S COAL SECTOR - CHINA DIALOGUE
Benchmark coal tariffs have been the foundation of China’s electricity pricing since 2004 but this mechanism was replaced on January 1 with a ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
BALTIC BRIEFING TANKER REPORT - WEEK 2
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Escalating tensions between the USA and Iran, in addition to a continuing strong market, made for an interesting week, with rates firming ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Planning Commission, India
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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