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Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
 Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between China and the West — and China and the U.S., in particular. However, there are far-reaching effects that have not been contemplated fully beyond the intuitive assessment.
Things move slowly. China has long been known as a country with patience, which in business language translates to longer lead times in the transactional arena, sometimes exhaustive negotiations, and relationships are built over time. Many of these relationships are created in the environment of trade shows, conferences, information exchange platforms, and trade delegations. China has finely tuned this method of cross-border introductions and it is a continuous process.
Combined with this is the growth of the multinational business presence in China. Major retailers, manufacturers, pharmaceuticals, biotech, automotive and other sectors are firmly planted in China with technology and personnel. Now, with the essentially closed border with China, the rest of the world waits and watches. To the business community, this is unsettling, to say the least, because there is no accurate predictor of when a vaccine may be found or when the world threat eradicated. Even when those pronouncements are ultimately made by Beijing there is the inherent distrust of information disseminated by the Chinese government.
So what does all of this mean for cross-border business in the short and long term?
An aerial view reveals that the movement of people and technology and deal closure have simply come to a halt. When the Chinese government, or other governments, or the WHO pronounce that it is safe to travel to China again, that will not be the end of it. There has been a worldwide reaction to the scare. The tradeshow and related cancellations have occurred not only in China but throughout Asia and into Europe. Therefore, a wide swath of activities are upended across all business sectors.
The rate of new cases slowed on Wednesday. As of this writing, there have been more than 45,000 cases of Covid-19 and over 1,100 deaths. Businesses from cruise ships to luxury brands and air travel, as well as global markets like oil, have all been hit. There can be no question that it will be a slow and painful process moving back to normalcy. Professional offices remain closed indefinitely, and 90% of businesses are closed or at dramatically reduced hours. Theaters, factories and others where people congregate are closed.
We are all familiar with the recent comparisons of coronavirus with SARS, but there is no real comparison. SARS was perceived as essentially a Hong Kong-centric event and everyone wondered if that would be the death of the HK economy, coming a few years after the handover. Moreover, social media and its impact on global interaction were just launching, and China’s interaction with the world economy was in its infancy.
Transparency will be the key to short term confidence which will lead to a long-term recovery. This is despite short-term pain and embarrassment. All governments can learn a lesson from this, but Beijing has yet to learn it. It may very well be that Wuhan, as ground zero for the Coronavirus, never recovers. The headlines today paint Wuhan as a pariah city, in a wartime battle and in lockdown. The Chinese Chernobyl. These characterizations will not be easily shed. Wuhan, as the capital of Hubei province, has positioned itself as a foreign investment hub and has developed trade, manufacturing and export and development zones to highlight its growth and position within China. Companies will have to assess whether or not their investments should remain in Wuhan or be moved.
Considering China’s impact on the world economy, China will not be off limits to future investment forever. Instead, there will be wariness and unbridled caution for the foreseeable future. Businesses will seek alternatives to avoid commercial and liability issues.
In the best case, returning to normal is not a reasonable expectation in the short term. In the long term, China must take all steps necessary to demonstrate its commitment to transparency regarding all factors relating to the virus. In today’s economy, there are many alternatives for trade and investment and China must recognize that its global trade partners need regular and repeated reassurances. Additionally, China will need to inject substantial financial incentives into the economy to balance against commercial and optical risks.
In the best of circumstances, this process will take six to nine months to see the way forward to a stable and commercially feasible reintroduction of business, confidence and renewed investment. This will require unrelenting adjustments as events require. There is no single action or vaccine that will erase the impact of the coronavirus. A group of actions are needed to restore the zeal and excitement for consumer, business, investment and tourism.
Anything less will create a lingering atmosphere of caution and distrust.
Source: CNBC
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Wednesday, 15 January 20
ASIA PACIFIC GAS AND LNG - 6 THEMES TO WATCH IN 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
NEWS RELEASE
Wood Mackenzie has identified six themes that will impact Asia Pacific’s gas and LNG markets in 2020
Asian LNG spot pr ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
PREDICTIONS FOR 2020: 'SLOWBALISATION" IS THE NEW GLOBALISATION - PWC
Projecting what the future holds is an important exercise for businesses looking to plan ahead. Below we present a summary of some of the themes we ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Happy New Year and all the best for IMO 2020 !!
The early days of IMO 2020 coming into force have certainly had an impact on the indus ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
SOLAS AMENDMENTS ENTERING INTO FORCE 1 JANUARY 2020 - STANDARD CLUB
While the latest amendments to MARPOL annex VI which entered into force on 1 January 2020 limiting the SOx emissions from ships has been the centre ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
MABUX: BUNKER MARKET THIS MORNING, JAN.14
MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) changed insignificant and i ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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