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Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
 Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between China and the West — and China and the U.S., in particular. However, there are far-reaching effects that have not been contemplated fully beyond the intuitive assessment.
Things move slowly. China has long been known as a country with patience, which in business language translates to longer lead times in the transactional arena, sometimes exhaustive negotiations, and relationships are built over time. Many of these relationships are created in the environment of trade shows, conferences, information exchange platforms, and trade delegations. China has finely tuned this method of cross-border introductions and it is a continuous process.
Combined with this is the growth of the multinational business presence in China. Major retailers, manufacturers, pharmaceuticals, biotech, automotive and other sectors are firmly planted in China with technology and personnel. Now, with the essentially closed border with China, the rest of the world waits and watches. To the business community, this is unsettling, to say the least, because there is no accurate predictor of when a vaccine may be found or when the world threat eradicated. Even when those pronouncements are ultimately made by Beijing there is the inherent distrust of information disseminated by the Chinese government.
So what does all of this mean for cross-border business in the short and long term?
An aerial view reveals that the movement of people and technology and deal closure have simply come to a halt. When the Chinese government, or other governments, or the WHO pronounce that it is safe to travel to China again, that will not be the end of it. There has been a worldwide reaction to the scare. The tradeshow and related cancellations have occurred not only in China but throughout Asia and into Europe. Therefore, a wide swath of activities are upended across all business sectors.
The rate of new cases slowed on Wednesday. As of this writing, there have been more than 45,000 cases of Covid-19 and over 1,100 deaths. Businesses from cruise ships to luxury brands and air travel, as well as global markets like oil, have all been hit. There can be no question that it will be a slow and painful process moving back to normalcy. Professional offices remain closed indefinitely, and 90% of businesses are closed or at dramatically reduced hours. Theaters, factories and others where people congregate are closed.
We are all familiar with the recent comparisons of coronavirus with SARS, but there is no real comparison. SARS was perceived as essentially a Hong Kong-centric event and everyone wondered if that would be the death of the HK economy, coming a few years after the handover. Moreover, social media and its impact on global interaction were just launching, and China’s interaction with the world economy was in its infancy.
Transparency will be the key to short term confidence which will lead to a long-term recovery. This is despite short-term pain and embarrassment. All governments can learn a lesson from this, but Beijing has yet to learn it. It may very well be that Wuhan, as ground zero for the Coronavirus, never recovers. The headlines today paint Wuhan as a pariah city, in a wartime battle and in lockdown. The Chinese Chernobyl. These characterizations will not be easily shed. Wuhan, as the capital of Hubei province, has positioned itself as a foreign investment hub and has developed trade, manufacturing and export and development zones to highlight its growth and position within China. Companies will have to assess whether or not their investments should remain in Wuhan or be moved.
Considering China’s impact on the world economy, China will not be off limits to future investment forever. Instead, there will be wariness and unbridled caution for the foreseeable future. Businesses will seek alternatives to avoid commercial and liability issues.
In the best case, returning to normal is not a reasonable expectation in the short term. In the long term, China must take all steps necessary to demonstrate its commitment to transparency regarding all factors relating to the virus. In today’s economy, there are many alternatives for trade and investment and China must recognize that its global trade partners need regular and repeated reassurances. Additionally, China will need to inject substantial financial incentives into the economy to balance against commercial and optical risks.
In the best of circumstances, this process will take six to nine months to see the way forward to a stable and commercially feasible reintroduction of business, confidence and renewed investment. This will require unrelenting adjustments as events require. There is no single action or vaccine that will erase the impact of the coronavirus. A group of actions are needed to restore the zeal and excitement for consumer, business, investment and tourism.
Anything less will create a lingering atmosphere of caution and distrust.
Source: CNBC
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Thursday, 30 January 20
CAPE: WITH CHINESE NEW YEAR TAKING PLACE, THE RATES ARE REACHING FURTHER DISAPPOINTING LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Cape
With Chinese New Year taking place, the rates are reaching further disappointing levels. Present TC average is below USD 4,500, off 24% fr ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
INDONESIA REMAINS AT THE TOP SPOT IN 2019 AS THE LARGEST SUPPLIER OF COAL TO INDIA WITH 91.3 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
Despite repeated promises from India’s government to reduce the country’s coal imports and increase domestic self-reliance, volumes jus ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last week Libya’s oil production operations were disrupted as it was reported that local Libyan tribes interrupted output at the the El Feel ...
Tuesday, 28 January 20
INDONESIA - UNCERTAINTY OVER AVAILABILITY OF LSFO - THE STANDARD CLUB
The club has received reports that low sulphur fuel is not currently readily available in all Indonesian ports and that there are local shortages.
...
Sunday, 26 January 20
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN BASIN SAW A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SAMARINDA TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $4,750 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market endured heavy losses throughout the past week, with the Capesize 5TC dropping from $8,352 to $4,772. In the lead up to Chin ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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