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Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
 Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between China and the West — and China and the U.S., in particular. However, there are far-reaching effects that have not been contemplated fully beyond the intuitive assessment.
Things move slowly. China has long been known as a country with patience, which in business language translates to longer lead times in the transactional arena, sometimes exhaustive negotiations, and relationships are built over time. Many of these relationships are created in the environment of trade shows, conferences, information exchange platforms, and trade delegations. China has finely tuned this method of cross-border introductions and it is a continuous process.
Combined with this is the growth of the multinational business presence in China. Major retailers, manufacturers, pharmaceuticals, biotech, automotive and other sectors are firmly planted in China with technology and personnel. Now, with the essentially closed border with China, the rest of the world waits and watches. To the business community, this is unsettling, to say the least, because there is no accurate predictor of when a vaccine may be found or when the world threat eradicated. Even when those pronouncements are ultimately made by Beijing there is the inherent distrust of information disseminated by the Chinese government.
So what does all of this mean for cross-border business in the short and long term?
An aerial view reveals that the movement of people and technology and deal closure have simply come to a halt. When the Chinese government, or other governments, or the WHO pronounce that it is safe to travel to China again, that will not be the end of it. There has been a worldwide reaction to the scare. The tradeshow and related cancellations have occurred not only in China but throughout Asia and into Europe. Therefore, a wide swath of activities are upended across all business sectors.
The rate of new cases slowed on Wednesday. As of this writing, there have been more than 45,000 cases of Covid-19 and over 1,100 deaths. Businesses from cruise ships to luxury brands and air travel, as well as global markets like oil, have all been hit. There can be no question that it will be a slow and painful process moving back to normalcy. Professional offices remain closed indefinitely, and 90% of businesses are closed or at dramatically reduced hours. Theaters, factories and others where people congregate are closed.
We are all familiar with the recent comparisons of coronavirus with SARS, but there is no real comparison. SARS was perceived as essentially a Hong Kong-centric event and everyone wondered if that would be the death of the HK economy, coming a few years after the handover. Moreover, social media and its impact on global interaction were just launching, and China’s interaction with the world economy was in its infancy.
Transparency will be the key to short term confidence which will lead to a long-term recovery. This is despite short-term pain and embarrassment. All governments can learn a lesson from this, but Beijing has yet to learn it. It may very well be that Wuhan, as ground zero for the Coronavirus, never recovers. The headlines today paint Wuhan as a pariah city, in a wartime battle and in lockdown. The Chinese Chernobyl. These characterizations will not be easily shed. Wuhan, as the capital of Hubei province, has positioned itself as a foreign investment hub and has developed trade, manufacturing and export and development zones to highlight its growth and position within China. Companies will have to assess whether or not their investments should remain in Wuhan or be moved.
Considering China’s impact on the world economy, China will not be off limits to future investment forever. Instead, there will be wariness and unbridled caution for the foreseeable future. Businesses will seek alternatives to avoid commercial and liability issues.
In the best case, returning to normal is not a reasonable expectation in the short term. In the long term, China must take all steps necessary to demonstrate its commitment to transparency regarding all factors relating to the virus. In today’s economy, there are many alternatives for trade and investment and China must recognize that its global trade partners need regular and repeated reassurances. Additionally, China will need to inject substantial financial incentives into the economy to balance against commercial and optical risks.
In the best of circumstances, this process will take six to nine months to see the way forward to a stable and commercially feasible reintroduction of business, confidence and renewed investment. This will require unrelenting adjustments as events require. There is no single action or vaccine that will erase the impact of the coronavirus. A group of actions are needed to restore the zeal and excitement for consumer, business, investment and tourism.
Anything less will create a lingering atmosphere of caution and distrust.
Source: CNBC
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Thursday, 30 January 20
CAPE: WITH CHINESE NEW YEAR TAKING PLACE, THE RATES ARE REACHING FURTHER DISAPPOINTING LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Cape
With Chinese New Year taking place, the rates are reaching further disappointing levels. Present TC average is below USD 4,500, off 24% fr ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
INDONESIA REMAINS AT THE TOP SPOT IN 2019 AS THE LARGEST SUPPLIER OF COAL TO INDIA WITH 91.3 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
Despite repeated promises from India’s government to reduce the country’s coal imports and increase domestic self-reliance, volumes jus ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last week Libya’s oil production operations were disrupted as it was reported that local Libyan tribes interrupted output at the the El Feel ...
Tuesday, 28 January 20
INDONESIA - UNCERTAINTY OVER AVAILABILITY OF LSFO - THE STANDARD CLUB
The club has received reports that low sulphur fuel is not currently readily available in all Indonesian ports and that there are local shortages.
...
Sunday, 26 January 20
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN BASIN SAW A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SAMARINDA TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $4,750 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market endured heavy losses throughout the past week, with the Capesize 5TC dropping from $8,352 to $4,772. In the lead up to Chin ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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