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Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
 Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between China and the West — and China and the U.S., in particular. However, there are far-reaching effects that have not been contemplated fully beyond the intuitive assessment.
Things move slowly. China has long been known as a country with patience, which in business language translates to longer lead times in the transactional arena, sometimes exhaustive negotiations, and relationships are built over time. Many of these relationships are created in the environment of trade shows, conferences, information exchange platforms, and trade delegations. China has finely tuned this method of cross-border introductions and it is a continuous process.
Combined with this is the growth of the multinational business presence in China. Major retailers, manufacturers, pharmaceuticals, biotech, automotive and other sectors are firmly planted in China with technology and personnel. Now, with the essentially closed border with China, the rest of the world waits and watches. To the business community, this is unsettling, to say the least, because there is no accurate predictor of when a vaccine may be found or when the world threat eradicated. Even when those pronouncements are ultimately made by Beijing there is the inherent distrust of information disseminated by the Chinese government.
So what does all of this mean for cross-border business in the short and long term?
An aerial view reveals that the movement of people and technology and deal closure have simply come to a halt. When the Chinese government, or other governments, or the WHO pronounce that it is safe to travel to China again, that will not be the end of it. There has been a worldwide reaction to the scare. The tradeshow and related cancellations have occurred not only in China but throughout Asia and into Europe. Therefore, a wide swath of activities are upended across all business sectors.
The rate of new cases slowed on Wednesday. As of this writing, there have been more than 45,000 cases of Covid-19 and over 1,100 deaths. Businesses from cruise ships to luxury brands and air travel, as well as global markets like oil, have all been hit. There can be no question that it will be a slow and painful process moving back to normalcy. Professional offices remain closed indefinitely, and 90% of businesses are closed or at dramatically reduced hours. Theaters, factories and others where people congregate are closed.
We are all familiar with the recent comparisons of coronavirus with SARS, but there is no real comparison. SARS was perceived as essentially a Hong Kong-centric event and everyone wondered if that would be the death of the HK economy, coming a few years after the handover. Moreover, social media and its impact on global interaction were just launching, and China’s interaction with the world economy was in its infancy.
Transparency will be the key to short term confidence which will lead to a long-term recovery. This is despite short-term pain and embarrassment. All governments can learn a lesson from this, but Beijing has yet to learn it. It may very well be that Wuhan, as ground zero for the Coronavirus, never recovers. The headlines today paint Wuhan as a pariah city, in a wartime battle and in lockdown. The Chinese Chernobyl. These characterizations will not be easily shed. Wuhan, as the capital of Hubei province, has positioned itself as a foreign investment hub and has developed trade, manufacturing and export and development zones to highlight its growth and position within China. Companies will have to assess whether or not their investments should remain in Wuhan or be moved.
Considering China’s impact on the world economy, China will not be off limits to future investment forever. Instead, there will be wariness and unbridled caution for the foreseeable future. Businesses will seek alternatives to avoid commercial and liability issues.
In the best case, returning to normal is not a reasonable expectation in the short term. In the long term, China must take all steps necessary to demonstrate its commitment to transparency regarding all factors relating to the virus. In today’s economy, there are many alternatives for trade and investment and China must recognize that its global trade partners need regular and repeated reassurances. Additionally, China will need to inject substantial financial incentives into the economy to balance against commercial and optical risks.
In the best of circumstances, this process will take six to nine months to see the way forward to a stable and commercially feasible reintroduction of business, confidence and renewed investment. This will require unrelenting adjustments as events require. There is no single action or vaccine that will erase the impact of the coronavirus. A group of actions are needed to restore the zeal and excitement for consumer, business, investment and tourism.
Anything less will create a lingering atmosphere of caution and distrust.
Source: CNBC
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Thursday, 30 January 20
CAPE: WITH CHINESE NEW YEAR TAKING PLACE, THE RATES ARE REACHING FURTHER DISAPPOINTING LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Cape
With Chinese New Year taking place, the rates are reaching further disappointing levels. Present TC average is below USD 4,500, off 24% fr ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
INDONESIA REMAINS AT THE TOP SPOT IN 2019 AS THE LARGEST SUPPLIER OF COAL TO INDIA WITH 91.3 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
Despite repeated promises from India’s government to reduce the country’s coal imports and increase domestic self-reliance, volumes jus ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last week Libya’s oil production operations were disrupted as it was reported that local Libyan tribes interrupted output at the the El Feel ...
Tuesday, 28 January 20
INDONESIA - UNCERTAINTY OVER AVAILABILITY OF LSFO - THE STANDARD CLUB
The club has received reports that low sulphur fuel is not currently readily available in all Indonesian ports and that there are local shortages.
...
Sunday, 26 January 20
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN BASIN SAW A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SAMARINDA TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $4,750 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market endured heavy losses throughout the past week, with the Capesize 5TC dropping from $8,352 to $4,772. In the lead up to Chin ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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