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Wednesday, 15 January 20
PREDICTIONS FOR 2020: 'SLOWBALISATION" IS THE NEW GLOBALISATION - PWC
 Projecting what the future holds is an important exercise for businesses looking to plan ahead. Below we present a summary of some of the themes we assess will likely prevail in the global economy in 2020.
Trading goods across borders will likely remain tense…: A defining feature of the global economy since at least the 1970’s has been globalisation—the bringing together of economies predominantly via more liberal trade flows. The global volume of merchandise traded slowed down dramatically and even went in reverse in 2019 in contrast to a 21st century average growth rate of about 3.4% per annum*. Also, in December 2019 the World Trade Organization’s (“WTO”) dispute settlement mechanism was effectively disbanded. We expect this trend to continue in 2020 and for trade tensions in the global goods market to persist. This means that we assess globalisation is likely give way to ‘slowbalisation’ i.e. continued integration of the global economy via trade, financial and other flows but albeit at a significantly slower pace. Large businesses with sophisticated supply chains spread across the world should therefore plan for a variety of scenarios, some of which have not been experienced in recent history.
…but global services trade expected to hit US$7 trillion: One aspect of trade that is often neglected is trade in services, which is now about one third of the size of the global volume of merchandise trade. In contrast to goods, services remain largely unaffected from tariff wars. The latest 2018 data from the International Trade Centre (“ITC”) shows that the global export of services was worth about US$5.8 trillion, or around 3.5% of global GDP. We expect the total value of services exported to hit a record US$7 trillion by 2020. Assuming historic trends continue, the US and UK are likely to remain the first and second largest exporters of services in the world in US Dollar terms. But in yet another reminder of the shift of the centre of economic power from the West to the East we expect China to overtake France in 2020 and become the world’s fourth largest services exporter.
Global economy is expected to grow at a modest pace: Figure 1 shows that growth in merchandise trade flows and the global economy have been intrinsically linked. In our main scenario for 2020, we expect the global economy to expand at a rate of around 3.2% in purchasing power parity (“PPP”) terms which is below the 21st century average of 3.8% per annum. In our main scenario, we expect all of the major economies to grow, buoyed, in part, by accommodative financial conditions. US economic activity is likely to expand by around 2%, in line with its potential rate. Given the historically low unemployment rate, US employers, however, find it increasingly difficult to hire staff. Across the pond, the Eurozone is expected to grow at approximately half that rate (i.e. around 1%). Germany, and other economies that are sensitive to global trade flows, to become more reliant on household consumption as a source of growth instead of net exports and investment. For Germany, however, this could be challenging as households tend to save more than the European average. In the emerging world, we expect the Chinese economy to expand by less than 6%– but it can still add the equivalent of Saudi Arabia to the world economy in one year. The world’s six other largest emerging economies, including Turkey, should also grow in this scenario, with India leading the way.
Predictions for 2020
More jobs across the board but not necessarily spread equitably
We expect the G7 to continue to create jobs, to the tune of around 2 million. Four out of the five new jobs in the G7 will be created in the US, UK and Japan. As the pool of labour resources in the G7 gradually dries up, we assess earnings should continue their upward trajectory. But in the absence of productivity improvements, corporate profit margins could be squeezed. Similarly, the International Labour Organization (“ILO”) expects the seven largest emerging economies– the E7–to create about 8 million jobs in net terms. There are some exceptions to this– Russia and China are likely to experience a shrinking workforce because of demographic pressures. Finally, the ILO’s employment projections for the G7 show that jobs are likely to be taken up by men and women in equal measure. Within the E7, however, the ILO expects job creations to be less evenly distributed across genders.
India expected to rise in global economic rankings
According to the IMF’s latest estimates, 2019 was the year when India overtook the UK and France to become the fifth largest economy in the world. This is an ongoing process with India likely on current trends to overtake Germany before 2025 and Japan before 2030 to become the world’s largest economy behind China and the US. France and the UK will likely now vie for sixth place in the rankings, with their relative position dependent on the value of the pound against the euro which may remain volatile in 2020.
Germany may need to choose between ‘lower for longer’ interest rates or higher fiscal spending
The US is expected to run a US$1.2 trillion government deficit. The Eurozone, which is about the same size as the US economy will run a government deficit about 1/10 the size of the US. In fact, we expect almost half of the Eurozone member states to run a government budget surplus in 2020. Cyprus, Luxembourg and Germany are expected to run the largest surplus relative to their economic size while France and Italy are expected to be on the opposite end of the spectrum with continuing budget deficits. Germany is likely to come under renewed pressure to either increase its government spending or accept ‘lower for longer’ interest rates (see Figure 3). Further afield, of the Gulf Cooperation Council (“GCC”) countries, we only expect Qatar to run a government surplus in 2020. This could mean more policy action in the future to balance government budgets across the GCC.
US oil production expected to hit record levels
Global renewable energy and nuclear consumption will likely make up more than 20% of global energy consumption, which is the highest it has ever been. The rise of renewable energy reflects how businesses, households and governments are adapting and changing their attitudes. China is expected to be the largest consumer of this type of energy closely followed by Europe. However, oil is expected to continue to remain the most preferred source of energy in 2020 for the world economy followed by coal and natural gas. The US and China will almost certainly remain the largest consumers of oil in the world in 2020. In so far as the extraction and supply of oil (and other liquid forms of energy) is concerned the US may surpass the monthly 13 million barrels per day (“b/d”) threshold. To set into context, in the US crude oil was extracted at a rate of 5.5 million b/d 10 years ago.
Global population biggest it has ever been but also the greyest
According to the United Nations (“UN”), In 2020, the world’s population is expected to reach 7.7 billion, which is around a 10% increase compared to a decade ago. China, India and SubSaharan Africa are expected to drive around half of the world’s annual population increase. At the same time, the number of people above the age of 60 globally is expected to surpass the one billion mark. China is expected to have a larger number of people above the age of 65 than all the six other largest emerging economies put together. This calls into question how policymakers respond to this trend and fund future health and social care. This could also be an opportunity for businesses in advanced economies, who have been dealing with such issues for decades. In relative terms i.e. the proportion of people above the age of 65 relative to the country’s entire population, Japan is expected to remain the ‘greyest’ country in the world and Niger is expected to be the youngest.
Source: PWC
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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