We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 15 January 20
PREDICTIONS FOR 2020: 'SLOWBALISATION" IS THE NEW GLOBALISATION - PWC
 Projecting what the future holds is an important exercise for businesses looking to plan ahead. Below we present a summary of some of the themes we assess will likely prevail in the global economy in 2020.
Trading goods across borders will likely remain tense…: A defining feature of the global economy since at least the 1970’s has been globalisation—the bringing together of economies predominantly via more liberal trade flows. The global volume of merchandise traded slowed down dramatically and even went in reverse in 2019 in contrast to a 21st century average growth rate of about 3.4% per annum*. Also, in December 2019 the World Trade Organization’s (“WTO”) dispute settlement mechanism was effectively disbanded. We expect this trend to continue in 2020 and for trade tensions in the global goods market to persist. This means that we assess globalisation is likely give way to ‘slowbalisation’ i.e. continued integration of the global economy via trade, financial and other flows but albeit at a significantly slower pace. Large businesses with sophisticated supply chains spread across the world should therefore plan for a variety of scenarios, some of which have not been experienced in recent history.
…but global services trade expected to hit US$7 trillion: One aspect of trade that is often neglected is trade in services, which is now about one third of the size of the global volume of merchandise trade. In contrast to goods, services remain largely unaffected from tariff wars. The latest 2018 data from the International Trade Centre (“ITC”) shows that the global export of services was worth about US$5.8 trillion, or around 3.5% of global GDP. We expect the total value of services exported to hit a record US$7 trillion by 2020. Assuming historic trends continue, the US and UK are likely to remain the first and second largest exporters of services in the world in US Dollar terms. But in yet another reminder of the shift of the centre of economic power from the West to the East we expect China to overtake France in 2020 and become the world’s fourth largest services exporter.
Global economy is expected to grow at a modest pace: Figure 1 shows that growth in merchandise trade flows and the global economy have been intrinsically linked. In our main scenario for 2020, we expect the global economy to expand at a rate of around 3.2% in purchasing power parity (“PPP”) terms which is below the 21st century average of 3.8% per annum. In our main scenario, we expect all of the major economies to grow, buoyed, in part, by accommodative financial conditions. US economic activity is likely to expand by around 2%, in line with its potential rate. Given the historically low unemployment rate, US employers, however, find it increasingly difficult to hire staff. Across the pond, the Eurozone is expected to grow at approximately half that rate (i.e. around 1%). Germany, and other economies that are sensitive to global trade flows, to become more reliant on household consumption as a source of growth instead of net exports and investment. For Germany, however, this could be challenging as households tend to save more than the European average. In the emerging world, we expect the Chinese economy to expand by less than 6%– but it can still add the equivalent of Saudi Arabia to the world economy in one year. The world’s six other largest emerging economies, including Turkey, should also grow in this scenario, with India leading the way.
Predictions for 2020
More jobs across the board but not necessarily spread equitably
We expect the G7 to continue to create jobs, to the tune of around 2 million. Four out of the five new jobs in the G7 will be created in the US, UK and Japan. As the pool of labour resources in the G7 gradually dries up, we assess earnings should continue their upward trajectory. But in the absence of productivity improvements, corporate profit margins could be squeezed. Similarly, the International Labour Organization (“ILO”) expects the seven largest emerging economies– the E7–to create about 8 million jobs in net terms. There are some exceptions to this– Russia and China are likely to experience a shrinking workforce because of demographic pressures. Finally, the ILO’s employment projections for the G7 show that jobs are likely to be taken up by men and women in equal measure. Within the E7, however, the ILO expects job creations to be less evenly distributed across genders.
India expected to rise in global economic rankings
According to the IMF’s latest estimates, 2019 was the year when India overtook the UK and France to become the fifth largest economy in the world. This is an ongoing process with India likely on current trends to overtake Germany before 2025 and Japan before 2030 to become the world’s largest economy behind China and the US. France and the UK will likely now vie for sixth place in the rankings, with their relative position dependent on the value of the pound against the euro which may remain volatile in 2020.
Germany may need to choose between ‘lower for longer’ interest rates or higher fiscal spending
The US is expected to run a US$1.2 trillion government deficit. The Eurozone, which is about the same size as the US economy will run a government deficit about 1/10 the size of the US. In fact, we expect almost half of the Eurozone member states to run a government budget surplus in 2020. Cyprus, Luxembourg and Germany are expected to run the largest surplus relative to their economic size while France and Italy are expected to be on the opposite end of the spectrum with continuing budget deficits. Germany is likely to come under renewed pressure to either increase its government spending or accept ‘lower for longer’ interest rates (see Figure 3). Further afield, of the Gulf Cooperation Council (“GCC”) countries, we only expect Qatar to run a government surplus in 2020. This could mean more policy action in the future to balance government budgets across the GCC.
US oil production expected to hit record levels
Global renewable energy and nuclear consumption will likely make up more than 20% of global energy consumption, which is the highest it has ever been. The rise of renewable energy reflects how businesses, households and governments are adapting and changing their attitudes. China is expected to be the largest consumer of this type of energy closely followed by Europe. However, oil is expected to continue to remain the most preferred source of energy in 2020 for the world economy followed by coal and natural gas. The US and China will almost certainly remain the largest consumers of oil in the world in 2020. In so far as the extraction and supply of oil (and other liquid forms of energy) is concerned the US may surpass the monthly 13 million barrels per day (“b/d”) threshold. To set into context, in the US crude oil was extracted at a rate of 5.5 million b/d 10 years ago.
Global population biggest it has ever been but also the greyest
According to the United Nations (“UN”), In 2020, the world’s population is expected to reach 7.7 billion, which is around a 10% increase compared to a decade ago. China, India and SubSaharan Africa are expected to drive around half of the world’s annual population increase. At the same time, the number of people above the age of 60 globally is expected to surpass the one billion mark. China is expected to have a larger number of people above the age of 65 than all the six other largest emerging economies put together. This calls into question how policymakers respond to this trend and fund future health and social care. This could also be an opportunity for businesses in advanced economies, who have been dealing with such issues for decades. In relative terms i.e. the proportion of people above the age of 65 relative to the country’s entire population, Japan is expected to remain the ‘greyest’ country in the world and Niger is expected to be the youngest.
Source: PWC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
|
|
|
Showing 11 to 15 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
