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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Monday, 11 June 18
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICES HIT 6-YEAR HIGH AS ASIA DEMAND SPIKES - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have risen to their highest level since 2012 as hot weather across North Asia spurs buying ahead of the peak summer ...
Monday, 11 June 18
ANALYSING A NEW AGE OF AUTONOMOUS VESSELS - IMO
The International Maritime Organization answers the questions of Government Europa on how the next generation of autonomous vessels can be regulate ...
Friday, 08 June 18
AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL PRICES SURGE AS ASIA DEMAND HEATS UP - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit their highest level since late 2016 as the market heats up on strong demand across North Asia and China in ...
Wednesday, 06 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
As observed last month the price of oil hit its highest level since November 2014 reaching $80 per barrel. Global oil demand growth for 2018 was sl ...
Tuesday, 05 June 18
SOUTH KOREA'S SULPHUR CAP ALTERS ASIAN COAL MARKET DYNAMICS: RUSSELL
South Korea’s imposition of a strict sulphur cap on its imported coal is likely to cause ripples across Asia’s markets for the pollutin ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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