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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 16 June 20
SHALE SHOCKED - WOOD MACKENZIE
Capturing shut-ins in real time
Oil markets are searching for balance as the world reflects on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. ...
Sunday, 14 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL WAS STILL IN DEMAND; A 52,000-DWT SUPRAMAX FIXING DELIVERY CJK FOR A ROUND VOYAGE VIA INDONESIA AT $6,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made new highs for the year this week after strong iron ore demand to the far east continued to develop in the mar ...
Friday, 12 June 20
CHINA CURBS COAL IMPORTS AFTER 5 MONTHS OF RECORD INFLOWS - SOURCES: REUTERS
China has stepped up customs checks for coal imports, leading to lengthy processing delays at ports, four sources familiar with the matter said, as ...
Friday, 12 June 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED SET FOR MARKETING DRIVE TO CREATE DEMAND - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
State-run miner Coal India (CIL), which is primarily focused on supplying coal to the power sector, is now reorienting its marketing to create dema ...
Friday, 12 June 20
MOODY'S REVISES BRENT OIL PRICE OUTLOOK TO $35/BARREL IN 2020 - TASS
Low oil prices are likely to exert the highest pressure on Iraq, Oman and Kuwait due to the limited space for the fiscal policy pursuit and higher ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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