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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from return ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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