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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
Friday, 12 March 21
BATTERIES ARE REPLACING COAL NOT GAS - IEEFA
No amount of government subsidies can halt gas’s decline
Batteries are replacing coal not gas.
Today the early ...
Friday, 12 March 21
RENEWABLES SHOULD BE FOCUS OF VIETNAM’S DRAFT PDP8, NOT COAL AND GAS - IEEFA
Evidence was clear to inform the next stage of Vietnam’s power development
Vietnam’s recently published draft power deve ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
U.S. TO PRODUCE 581 MMST IN 2021, UP 8% FROM 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 581 MMst in 2021, 42 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to rise by a furth ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during the first months of 2021, we have come across a new era in which Owners chose the shipyards to repair their ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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