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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Wednesday, 04 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As it was expected, the whole world has been focusing on the spread of the Coronavirus, with the fast outbreak being primarily a massive humanitari ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growt ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
THERMAL COAL TO 'PHASE OUT', STRONG DEMAND FOR COKING COAL: PLATO - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Plato Investments managing director Don Hamson says Australian iron ore producers are set to benefit in the fallout from coronavirus as China will ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CHINA PROVINCE TO CLOSE 10 MLN TONNES OF COAL CAPACITY IN 2020 - XINHUA
Southwest China’s Guizhou Province plans to phase out 10 million tonnes of outdated coal production capacity by closing 80 coal mines in 2020 ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
UKRAINE PRODUCED OVER 2.55 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN FEBRUARY - UKRINFORM
In February 2020, Ukraine produced over 2.55 million tonnes of coal, which is 0.2% less than planned.
The Coal Miners Union of Ukrai ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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