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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Thursday, 05 March 20
SEABORNE COAL'S STRUGGLES IN ASIA ARE MORE THAN JUST CHINA CORONAVIRUS - REUTERS
Asia’s seaborne coal markets stumbled in February and it appears the coronavirus outbreak in China may dodge most of the blame, with the weak ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
INDONESIA'S BUKIT ASAM 2019 OUTPUT RISES 10.2% Y/Y - REUTERS
PT Bukit Asam, Indonesia’s state-owned coal miner, said on Wednesday its output in 2019 rose 10.2% to 29.1 million tonnes.
Coa ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
SEEING REMOTELY - IN SAFETY: BUREAU VERITAS PERFORMS FIRST SURVEY BY DRONE - BUREAU VERITAS
Bureau Veritas Marine & Offshore (BV), a world leader in testing, inspection and certification (TIC) services has completed its first survey by ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
AN EPIDEMIC OF UNCERTAINTY - THE CORONAVIRUS AND FORCE MAJEURE - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Do the effects of the coronavirus give rise to legitimate force majeure claims in connection with shipbuilding contracts ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CHINA IMPORTED 76.8 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL FOR JANUARY & FEBRUARY 2020; UP 3.4% YOY - REFINITIV | BC
The COVID-19 crisis has been gripping China already for almost two months now. It’s having a huge negative impact on the economy, and this is ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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