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Tuesday, 17 December 19
YEAR 2019: IT IS LOOKING SET THAT THIS YEAR WILL BE ONE OF THE SLOWEST IN TERMS OF DRY BULK NEWBUILDING ACTIVITY - ALLIED
Allied LogoWith just two weeks remaining before 2019 comes to an end, it is now looking set that this year will be one of the slowest in terms of dry bulk newbuilding activity. New ordering activity has been curtailed significantly (especially when compared with the two preceding years) and the worldwide orderbook has significantly deflated during the past 12 months, as a result of the excessive volatility that has dominated the freight market this year, Allied Shipping Research in its latest weekly report.

According to Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research, beginning with the kingpin of the dry bulk sector, the Capes, has definitely had a remarkable year, with the first half of the year seeing rates hover for several weeks at levels as low as US$3,500 per day, while during the final part this same market managed to reach a peak of just above US$38,000 and held for several months above the US$ 20,000 mark. This instability in the market seems to have enhanced concerns amongst potential investors and as a result we have seen a mere 138 new newbuilding contracts in the year so far.

Yiannis Vamvakas further noted that, this is a significant decline compared to 199 orders that were placed last year, as well as below the 147 orders made back in 2017. As a result, the orderbook has scaled back during the year by approximately 18%, while the orderbook to fleet ratio now holding at around 11%. With 122 vessels expected to be delivered in 2020, second thoughts will be lingering as to the prospects of placing any further new orders any time soon. A similar pattern was to be seen in the Panamax segment, with both the number of new contracts and the total orderbook having thinned out compared to last year. Interest for newbuildings has dropped, with a meagre 22 new vessels having been added to the orderbook this year. The significant amount of deliveries that took place this year is likely to have played a key role in this trend, as we noted 122 vessels being delivered, 126% more than in 2018. If we add to this the 143 units that are anticipated for delivery in 2020, it looks to be a set affair that the bearish sentiment regarding new orders will continue through into the new year. 

Moving onto the smaller size segments, Yiannis Vamvakas said, it looks as though the Supramax/ Ultramax size has managed to hold onto much of its appeal, as we saw 44 new contracts placed during the year, just 10 less than 2018. The freight market here too may have been volatile, but with the range having been much thinner the perceived risk seems to have been considerably lower in the eyes of most. In terms of seasonality, the most active period was the May-June period, holding 57% of the total orders placed. Despite this, the orderbook to fleet ratio still stands at around 6.5%. Given that the freight market is showing signs of improving and coupled by the overall more dependable performance noted in this size segment, it is likely that we will continue to see interest for new orders sway this way more so than what we will see in some of the other size segments.

Moving on to the Handysize, Allied Shipping Research noted that, a much more stable market was seen, with 20 new contracts being added to the orderbook, a number almost identical to that of 2018. The orderbook has dropped on an annual basis by approximately 20%, while the new contracts to fleet ratio ended at 0.8%, while it is worth mentioning that the last order noted thus far was back in June. The slowdown in dry bulk newbuilding activity has undoubtedly been an encouraging factor as it boosts optimism that the supply side of the industry will not slip beyond manageable levels. However, the scheduled deliveries for 2020 are still at relatively high levels. As such it looks as though next year will prove pivotal in determine the longer-term prospects of the market.


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