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Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate the IMO 2020 regulations. As the implementation date for the 0.5% sulphur cap approaches, the U.S. EIA expects that the swing in petroleum product pricing will be most acute in 2020 and the effects on prices will be moderate after that. However, the regulations will inevitably affect petroleum supply, demand, and trade flows on a long-term basis while shipowners, operators and charterers around the world are carefully preparing marine fuel supplies ahead.
As already extensively analysed operators of vessels have a few options, from switching to a lower-sulphur fuel or installing scrubbers to even switching to nonpetroleum-based fuels, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG). To enable a prosperous transition the industry demands increased on-board operational expertise and detailed product knowledge both on the supplying and the receiving vessel. Originally MGO was declared the primary winner since most of the bunker products did not met the sulphur content limit of 0.5%. However, with less than two months ahead of the implementation, it seems that the scale of the MGO demand swipe will not be as great as expected. In its place, very-low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) has been developed as a dark horse to challenge MGO as a stand-in for high-sulfur fuel oil, with a 3.5% sulfur limit, when the switch is activated.
VLSFO is already available in various locations across Asia, Middle East, Africa and the Americas as of mid-October, while it will be made available to additional ports during November and December. Even though demand up until recently has not been as high we are now seeing both supply and demand rapidly increasing. During the first half of October, supply of VLSFO surpassed demand in many areas and as argued by suppliers, this is because ship-owners that initially wanted to start bunkering VLSFO postponed their purchases for November and December. The market disturbance caused by the transition to IMO 2020 is apparent as the supply side of HSFO has begun running down stocks. Furthermore, tank barges that have been stowing HSFO are being taken out of service to be cleaned and get readied for VLSFO or MGO. Concurrently, suppliers and traders are reluctant to substitute HSFO stocks as they anticipate rapidly declining demand towards the end of 2019. This reduced supply capacity comes at a time when shipping still needs fuel, and the vast majority of bunker demand is still for HSFO.
To conclude, the transition to the 0.50% sulphur limit will cause disruption and more volatility than usual for a while but the market will eventually adapt as it always does. Worldwide, the shipping industry was primarily sceptical about the quality of VLSFO, but as 2020 approaches confidence for VLSFO grows among market members. Operators are projected to lean towards the lower cost option that will replace the 3.6 million barrels per day of HSFO that the shipping industry currently consumes. There is still speculation rather than solid fact about the price differential between high sulphur fuel and VLSFO price in the beginning of 2020, with some analysts predicting a potential range of $40-$200 between the two grades.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 19 December 19
COAL POWER GENERATION CONTINUES TO DECLINE IN GERMANY: DESTATIS, XINHUA REPORTED
The volume of electricity generated in coal-fired power plants in Germany decreased “markedly” by 37 percent to 34 billion kilowatt-hou ...
Thursday, 19 December 19
BANGLADESH'S NBR CUTS VAT ON COAL IMPORT FOR POWER PLANTS - THE DAILY STAR
The National Board of Revenue (NBR) reduced value added tax on the import of coal for power plants to 5 percent from present 15 percent for five ye ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
AVERAGE PRICES OF COAL IN 2018 WERE MORE THAN 60% HIGHER THAN IN 2016 - IEA
Coal use grew again in 2018.
Global coal demand increased by 1.1%, continuing the rebound that began in 2017 after three years of decline ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
ASIA IS SET TO SUPPORT GLOBAL COAL DEMAND FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS - IEA
Press Release: Global coal demand is expected to decline in 2019 but remain broadly stable over the next five years, supported by robust growth in ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know very well by now, the reduction in the maximum allowable sulphur content of marine fuels in 2020 is likely to have a massive impact ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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