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Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate the IMO 2020 regulations. As the implementation date for the 0.5% sulphur cap approaches, the U.S. EIA expects that the swing in petroleum product pricing will be most acute in 2020 and the effects on prices will be moderate after that. However, the regulations will inevitably affect petroleum supply, demand, and trade flows on a long-term basis while shipowners, operators and charterers around the world are carefully preparing marine fuel supplies ahead.
As already extensively analysed operators of vessels have a few options, from switching to a lower-sulphur fuel or installing scrubbers to even switching to nonpetroleum-based fuels, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG). To enable a prosperous transition the industry demands increased on-board operational expertise and detailed product knowledge both on the supplying and the receiving vessel. Originally MGO was declared the primary winner since most of the bunker products did not met the sulphur content limit of 0.5%. However, with less than two months ahead of the implementation, it seems that the scale of the MGO demand swipe will not be as great as expected. In its place, very-low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) has been developed as a dark horse to challenge MGO as a stand-in for high-sulfur fuel oil, with a 3.5% sulfur limit, when the switch is activated.
VLSFO is already available in various locations across Asia, Middle East, Africa and the Americas as of mid-October, while it will be made available to additional ports during November and December. Even though demand up until recently has not been as high we are now seeing both supply and demand rapidly increasing. During the first half of October, supply of VLSFO surpassed demand in many areas and as argued by suppliers, this is because ship-owners that initially wanted to start bunkering VLSFO postponed their purchases for November and December. The market disturbance caused by the transition to IMO 2020 is apparent as the supply side of HSFO has begun running down stocks. Furthermore, tank barges that have been stowing HSFO are being taken out of service to be cleaned and get readied for VLSFO or MGO. Concurrently, suppliers and traders are reluctant to substitute HSFO stocks as they anticipate rapidly declining demand towards the end of 2019. This reduced supply capacity comes at a time when shipping still needs fuel, and the vast majority of bunker demand is still for HSFO.
To conclude, the transition to the 0.50% sulphur limit will cause disruption and more volatility than usual for a while but the market will eventually adapt as it always does. Worldwide, the shipping industry was primarily sceptical about the quality of VLSFO, but as 2020 approaches confidence for VLSFO grows among market members. Operators are projected to lean towards the lower cost option that will replace the 3.6 million barrels per day of HSFO that the shipping industry currently consumes. There is still speculation rather than solid fact about the price differential between high sulphur fuel and VLSFO price in the beginning of 2020, with some analysts predicting a potential range of $40-$200 between the two grades.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 22 December 19
NMDC DIVERSIFIES INTO COAL MINING - THE HINDU
Iron ore mining major NMDC has been allocated two coal blocks in Jharkhand for commercial mining by the Union Ministry of Coal.
Both ...
Sunday, 22 December 19
TRADING PLACES FOR 2020 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
In the sea of 2020 predictions, Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions sail their own very unique course. For nearly 20 years the Danish investme ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasi ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling t ...
Friday, 20 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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