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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any posit ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
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